Javier Milei: what new Argentine president means for the Falklands

Javier Milei has officially been president of Argentina only since Sunday, but even before then the populist leader had reopened the debate over the Falkland Islands.

Milei declared in late November that Argentina "has non-negotiable sovereignty over the Falklands", a statement that has become a "political ritual", said Tom Jones on UnHerd. 

However, his comments in the final presidential debate earlier that month clouded his stance on Falklands sovereignty. Milei drew heavy criticism for saying that the British prime minister during the Falklands War in 1982, Margaret Thatcher, was one of "the great leaders in the history of humanity".

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'Unusual diplomatic position'

An "anarcho-capitalist" who has promised a "shock treatment of economic austerity", Milei's campaign, based on those of Donald Trump and Jair Bolsonaro, catapulted him to an unexpected victory in the Argentine election, wrote James Blair at Nacla.

But while his "strident views" attracted some voters and turned off many others, unlike his rivals he "toned down much of his rhetoric to appeal to moderate voters" in the final weeks of campaigning, said Phoebe Hennell at The Spectator.

That appears to extend to the divisive issue of the Falkland Islands, on which he has seemingly taken an "unusual diplomatic position for an Argentine politician", said Blair, even suggesting that the "will of the people living in the Islands" should be recognised.

Even if Milei is determined to reopen the Falklands issue in earnest, he is certainly considering it "not militarily but by diplomacy", said Simon Jenkins in The Guardian, and has suggested a transfer of power similar to what happened in Hong Kong. But despite the rhetoric, the issue will remain "far down the list of priorities" for the new president, added Hennell, with Argentina in the latest of a "series of crises", including the "third-worst annual inflation rate globally" – 138%.

'Enough to make Sunak bite'

It is a "must" for Argentine politicians to "create noise over the Falklands", explained Jones, but the latest declaration may "still be enough to make [Rishi] Sunak bite". As the "spectral presence" of Thatcher still "broods over the wasteland of Conservative politics", the prime minister may eye a "Falklands bounce" to overcome a string of domestic problems ahead of the next election.

After Milei's comments, it "didn't take long for Britain to hit back" said Hennell, with  Defence Secretary Grant Shapps saying it was "non-negotiable and undeniable" that the Falklands were British.

There is a clear "refusal to return" to negotiations by the British government, added Jenkins, despite the "sensible" notion that "tiny islands thousands of miles away" would be "best advised to forge a relationship with their close neighbour". The key reason the British government will not return to negotiations is "frankly that the Falklands were Britain's last spark of military glory", adding that it had abandoned "all common sense".

There will be hope in some quarters that many of Milei's "more polemical views will not actually pass through congress", said Hennell. But while the rest of the world will watch on "entertained by his eccentric personality", it remains to be seen whether a "fallen nation can be saved and if Milei will deliver his promises".