Libertarians may throw a wrench in the GOP’s midterm hopes

With Republicans clinging to power against a flurry of polls that predict a blue wave during this week’s elections, an additional foe could spell trouble for the GOP: libertarians. Some believe a roster of Libertarian candidates could ruin Republicans’ best chances during the midterms.

‘Could lead some conservatives to cast protest ballots’

While many analysts say the GOP’s efforts are futile due to nationwide frustration with the Trump administration, there are numerous battleground states in play. But “unhappiness with President Donald Trump could lead some conservatives to cast protest ballots,” said Thomas Beaumont at The Associated Press. Some voters could be swayed to vote Libertarian, a party which runs on a “message of nonintervention and limited centralized authority.” The party “could draw enough votes to affect the outcome in a number of these races,” GOP former Ohio state lawmaker Gene Krebs told the AP.

Three key states include Iowa, Kansas and Texas. Libertarians there are “polling in the low single digits, but their appeal to disaffected Republican voters could prove decisive in races with little separating the major-party contenders,” Sarah Fortinsky said at The Hill. Texas may end up the most prominent example, where Libertarian candidate Ted Brown “offers Republicans wary of Paxton an alternative to both their scandal-ridden Senate nominee and Democrat James Talarico.”

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‘Boosting third party spoilers is a bipartisan sport’

Even as Republican strategists are worried, others think the Libertarian Party could hurt Democrats in a similar manner. In U.S. politics, “boosting third party spoilers is a bipartisan sport,” said Isaac Arnsdorf, Mariana Alfaro and Erin Cox at The Washington Post. In “Pennsylvania, Michigan and Virginia battleground races, independents and Green candidates have popped up as left-wing alternatives to Democrats,” even as “social media and voter registration history show them as supporters of President Donald Trump.”

Overall, the “big question is not just how much of the vote Libertarian candidates will win in these contests” but also whether Democratic PACS spent enough money “in support of those Libertarian candidates,” said Lauren Egan at The Bulwark. While it “can be a risky and controversial tactic, promoting third-party spoiler candidates is not without precedent.”