Reform UK: will Farage's party decide the next election?

Reform UK is polling in the double digits as former leader Nigel Farage reportedly considers a return to frontline politics.

Farage, who headed up Reform UK in its previous iteration as the Brexit Party between 2019 and 2021, has told associates that he believes he has "one last shot" at frontline politics. He could be "plotting a comeback" as soon as January, once he has finished his stint on the reality TV show "I'm a Celebrity…", reported The Sun.

Richard Tice, the current leader of Reform UK, could "step aside" for Farage, added the paper. An ally of Farage told The Sun that he believes the "fury over immigration and sacking of Suella Braverman" has given him the "political space to come back".

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What the papers said

Senior Conservatives are bracing for a Farage return. "He's in the jungle, raising his profile and growing in popularity," one unnamed Tory MP told The Sun. 

"Lots of my constituents already really like him and fundamentally agree with what he says on immigration. The Conservatives must own that space and not shut people like him out as he resonates so much with the British public."

According to the latest YouGov polling, Reform UK is now at a record 10%, up from 2% in 2019.

"Next year's general election in Britain could be the most toxic in decades," said Simon Jenkins in The Guardian. "Two things, Reform UK and immigration, seem certain to plague debate on the political right," he continued. 

Immigration "is not the biggest electoral issue for voters", coming behind the economy and health, but for the 17% of the population who are "disaffected floating voters" – and the politicians pursuing them – "it is code for control, security, community and national identity".

Indeed, the Conservatives are becoming "increasingly vulnerable" to what one Tory MP describes as a "stop the boats, bin the ECHR, kick the establishment" sentiment, which could be led by Farage upon his exit from the jungle, said Iain Martin in The Times. The fear is that such a campaign could turn a Conservative defeat at the next general election "into a rout" and "help deliver a Labour majority of 200 seats or even more".

"As was the case with Ukip, the insurgent party does not need to win many – or any – seats at a general election," continued Martin. If it takes a sufficient number of votes from the Tories it could "wipe out" majorities and cost the party vital seats. 

Indeed, the Conservatives have already suffered defeat at the hands of Reform UK. At the Tamworth by-election in October "the Reform vote of 1,373 was bigger than the Labour majority of 1,316", noted Martin.

Both Labour and Conservatives will be focusing on winning over Middle England come the next election, said Gordon Rayner in The Telegraph.

For Sunak, his main concern will be keeping those who voted Conservative in 2019 and are now unsure how they will vote, or say they will vote for Reform UK at the next election.

If Sunak can "walk the walk as well as talk the talk" on immigration, "he could secure up to 1.9 million votes among people for whom immigration is top of their list of election issues", added Rayner.

"The task for Sunak if he wants to win over these voters is clear: get migrant-processing flights to Rwanda off the ground before the next election, and, if necessary, make a manifesto pledge to leave the European Convention on Human Rights," he continued.

What next?

"Sunak and his MPs are not worried that Reform will win constituencies from them," said Kate Devlin in The Independent. But they are very nervous they could take "hundreds or even thousands of votes in very tight contests, splitting the vote and ensuring the Tories lose the seat".

In the 2019 election, it was the absence of the Brexit Party – now Reform UK – in many seats that contributed to the Conservative Party's 80-seat majority. 

Many Tory MPs "are now hoping something similar will happen this election", but Reform UK's current leader, Richard Tice, is "digging in", and insists the party will stand in every seat in the country. 

"The vagaries of the British political system suggest he is deeply unlikely to take any seats," Devlin continued, "but many Tory MPs face a nervous time worrying he could cost them theirs."