Will Rishi Sunak's risky reshuffle gamble pay off?

Rishi Sunak met his new-look cabinet this morning as he seeks a reversal of fortunes for his Conservative Party.

Few in Westminster were shocked by the sacking of Suella Braverman, Sunak's increasingly controversial home secretary, who, in the opening salvo of a major cabinet reshuffle, was replaced by former foreign secretary James Cleverly.

But the return of David Cameron to frontline politics as foreign secretary was "a genuine 'marmalade dropper' moment", said Sky News's political editor Beth Rigby. "No one was expecting that."

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Other key appointments include rising star Victoria Atkins as health secretary, replacing Steve Barclay, who is now environment secretary. Richard Holden is the new Conservative Party chairman, while 2019 newbie Laura Trott is now chief secretary to the Treasury. 

This was a "government merry-go-round" likely to have "profound implications for the course of British politics for the next 12 months", said Politico's London Playbook.

What did the papers say?

The prime minister has promoted some of his key supporters in an effort to get his cabinet "on an election footing" as his party continues to trail dismally in the polls, said Rigby for Sky News. 

But the right wing of the Conservative Party will be looking on "in alarm" as Sunak, a socially conservative prime minister who "looked to be tacking to the right" on key issues such as immigration, appears to be "placing his flag very much on the centre ground" by appointing Cameron as his "new right-hand man".

Sunak has always struggled with a perception that he is a liberal or centrist-leaning Tory, despite his often right-wing views. Now, Cameron's return "risks playing into the long-held fears of conservative-minded colleagues" that the prime minister "is less right-wing than they had hoped", said Politico.

Equally, if part of Sunak's calculation in appointing Cameron is to "shore up the Blue Wall vote", it may be a move that has come "too late". One former cabinet minister told Politico: "That horse hasn't so much bolted, as died." 

The risk for Sunak is that "neither wing of his divided party – nor either half of his fragile voter coalition" will be particularly "convinced".

Cameron's return is "peculiar" given his record both in and out of office, said The Economist. Now the highest-ranking diplomat in the land, his foreign policy errors as prime minister were "numerous", chief among them his role in the UK's exit from the European Union. "For half a millennium Britain aimed to ensure Europe did not unite against it," but by calling for a Brexit referendum in 2013, Cameron "managed it in three short years".

He also "embarrassed himself" through his involvement in the Greensill scandal, one of the biggest lobbying rows in recent British political history, continued the paper. 

Cameron has returned to frontline politics "largely because Sunak is desperate". The former PM may reassure "some wavering southern Conservative voters", but if Sunak is looking for a steady pair of hands as foreign secretary, Cameron's political record is both controversial and thin.

What next?

Sunak has attempted to stamp his authority on the cabinet with Monday's reshuffle, but he now risks "an almighty confrontation with the Tory right over Rwanda", said The Times.

On Wednesday, the Supreme Court will rule if the government policy of sending asylum seekers to Rwanda is legal. If the court rules against the government, the right-wing of his party will push for Britain to leave the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR).

But Sunak's appointment of both Cleverly – a known opponent of the UK leaving the ECHR – and Cameron, who supported the Remain vote, suggests this is "not on the agenda".

"Sunak's calculation as he reshapes his government is that he has the political strength to quash any rebellion from the right," continued the paper. But if the Rwanda decision goes against the government this week, "his mettle is likely to be tested".

The reshuffle means he now runs the risk that the Tory right will go into "total opposition" to a leader they see as "there on sufferance" and not a "true Conservative", said Robert Shrimsley in the Financial Times.

"If he is lucky he will have significantly improved his government, albeit very late in the day. If not he will have unleashed the malevolent forces which destroyed most of his predecessors," continued Shrimsley. "And so far Sunak has not been lucky."