Could the UK pull out of the European Convention on Human Rights?

Rishi Sunak is thought to be open to removing Britain from the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) in order to stem the flow of illegal migrants into the country.

Official estimates suggest there will be an increase of almost 50% in the number of illegal migrants arriving in the UK this year – 65,000, compared to the 45,000 people who claimed asylum in 2022, said The Sunday Times.

The government is reportedly examining several options to limit arrivals, with new policies due to be unveiled “within weeks”. The plan is expected to bar some migrants from claiming asylum in the UK. It is targeted specifically at those crossing the Channel in small boats, and the ECHR is thought to be in Sunak’s crosshairs due to the fact it blocked the first deportations that were planned from the UK to Rwanda last year.

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“The PM has been clear he wants to introduce legislation that meets our international obligations,” a source familiar with Sunak’s thinking told The Sunday Times. “This bill will go as far as possible within international law. We are pushing the boundaries of what is legally possible, while staying within the ECHR. And we are confident that when it is tested in the courts, we will win.”

However, the source said, if the legislation is held up at the European Court of Human Rights in Strasbourg, Sunak “will be willing to reconsider whether being part of the ECHR is in the UK’s long-term interests”.

What did the papers say?

The new bill is expected to place a “legal duty on the Home Secretary to deport migrants who arrive illegally or enter the UK indirectly through a safe third country without permission”, said The Daily Telegraph. It is thought that only if the government’s overarching plan to bar migrants from claiming asylum in the UK is blocked in the European Court of Human Rights will the governemnt follow through with the threat of leaving the ECHR.

Even so, said the Independent in its leader article, “this is an incredibly irresponsible threat to make”. The news site added that “this is hardly an example to set for other nations who wilfully break international law and defile human rights”. A move like this “would put the UK in the camp of Russia and Belarus”.

It’s also “shameful” that the UK so resents receiving a “relatively modest proportion of Europe’s refugees” compared to most of its neighbours, the Independent said.

But this idea that leaving the ECHR would make the UK a “rogue state” is actually “blown far out of proportion”, said Henry Hill on CapX. “The ECHR is, as the name implies, not a global institution. Most nations are not signatories to it, and it is hard to see the value in a definition of ‘rogue state’ which included the UK and, say, Canada,” he wrote.

There are plenty of Tories, though, who think leaving the ECHR, or even threatening to, is a bad idea, said Eleni Courea in Politico’s London Playbook. In WhatsApp messages among Tory MPs seen by the morning newsletter, Jackie Doyle-Price said “willy waving about leaving the ECHR will do zilch”. She went on to say that “upholding the law should never be a matter for debate for a Conservative”.

What next?

There are three options the government is considering to limit migrant numbers without leaving the ECHR, said The Daily Telegraph. One is to introduce “notwithstanding clauses”, which would “explicitly state that British courts can ignore European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) rulings if a migrant who entered the country illegally attempts to claim that their deportation would breach their right to a family life or right to liberty and security”.

Another option would prevent all small boat migrants from submitting a judicial review of their exclusion from the asylum system. And a third “less radical” proposal would only allow “out-of-country appeals” – challenges to deportations could only be lodged after a migrant has been removed from the UK.

The new bill will also outline plans to deport those who arrive illegally wanting to claim asylum within “days or weeks” rather than “months or years” to their country of origin or to Rwanda, with which Britain has signed a deal, The Sunday Times said. A No.10 source said 90% of small boats arrivals tried to claim asylum last year.

The government also wants to “rewrite some of Britain’s modern slavery rules, which are used by eight out of ten asylum seekers coming to the UK”, the paper added. It is expected to contain provision to set up new detention centres for arrivals, some of them on old Ministry of Defence land.