What will the thaw in Russia-US relations cost Europe?

Donald Trump has dismissed Ukraine's complaints about not having a voice in peace negotiations with Russia, saying Kyiv could have "settled" the war "very easily" in the past three years.

The comments come after US officials met with their Russian counterparts in Saudi Arabia for talks over ending the war in Ukraine, which excluded leaders of the invaded country and any of its European allies.

This exclusion – and the dismissal of Ukraine's complaints – will "fuel fresh fears in Europe" that heavy concessions will be made to Russia, and Trump will try to "impose a peace deal that favours his friend in the Kremlin", said Stephen Collinson at CNN.

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What did the commentators say?

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told reporters today that Trump "lives in a disinformation bubble", and there was no way to "whitewash" Russia's responsibility for starting the war.

It is clear that Trump has "pulled a handbrake turn on relations" with America's "old adversary", and appears to be starting to "align himself incrementally" with Russia's wishes, said James Matthews at Sky News. In Europe, there is growing concern that "Vladimir Putin is the lead author of the peace deal being pursued".

It appears that "America’s president has no clear plan", other than "delivering on his promise to end the war quickly", said The Economist. Putin "believes Trump is not just impatient but manipulable", and a quick "peace agreement" will allow him "to continue to try to cripple Europe and re-establish Russia’s sphere of influence".

Cut out of talks, European leaders gathered for an emergency summit in Paris. Their primary objective was to reassure Kyiv that, should the US and Russia reach "a settlement Ukraine could not sign up to", Europe and the UK would "stand by their political, financial and military commitments", said Jon Henley in The Guardian. But Europe's leaders are also now planning for a future in which the US no longer supports Europe to the same level, and looking for answers to the "fraught question" of how the continent can therefore "fund a major increase in defence spending".

America's thawing relations with Russia, plus a potential tariff war, is waking Europeans up "to the fact that they are entirely dependent on a foreign power that is no longer acting like itself", said Farah Stockman in The New York Times. It leaves Europe in a "surreal" situation, facing "betrayal by a longtime ally".

Europeans are even asking if the US has "become an adversary", said the Financial Times. It was always likely that the "US would force Europeans to take on more of the burden of their own security", but this shift is "chaotic and dangerous".

What next?

Trump seems to be determined to reach a deal and "claim a personal political victory". Fears that this could "foster future conflict" leaves Europe with little choice but to plan for a future without substantial support from the US, said Collinson.

If the US continues on its current trajectory, Europe must "act in its long-term interests" and find a way to step up military funding and "replace US-supplied kit", said the FT.

Deterring Russia from attacking Ukraine again will be a "huge endeavour" without US backing, but "beefing up defences" may mean it is "not impossible" to "persuade Trump to stick with a rebalanced alliance". But "what is certain" is that doing nothing would leave Europe "dangerously exposed".