Who are the markets backing in the US election?

Speculators are piling in on the Trump trade, suggesting a Harris victory would come as a surprise

A trader on the New York Stock Exchange floor
If Trump wins, it will be in spite of – not because of – the state of the US economy
(Image credit: Spencer Platt / Getty Images)

For some heavy-hitters in markets, the "worst possible outcome from the US presidential election" is a victory for Kamala Harris, said Katie Martin in the FT. The Democratic candidate's narrowing, or even vanishing, lead in opinion polls – combined with "a big rise in wagers" on her rival in the betting markets – "has been enough to persuade a good chunk of macro hedge fund managers that Donald Trump is on his way back to the White House".

For all that, political wonks still reckon the election is a "coin toss" and that betting markets are "unrepresentative and best ignored". BlackRock chief Larry Fink, meanwhile, has argued that the result of the election "really doesn't matter for markets" – a relaxed stance that it's fair to say isn't universal. Many believe that Trump's policies of imposing "aggressive tariffs on imports" and launching "crackdowns on immigration" are inflationary and will have a big effect on bond markets. "For the hedgies holding this view, the Trump trade is very much on."

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