Ignoring Trump worked for Youngkin. It won't work for the GOP in 2024.


Glenn Youngkin is the toast of the Republican Party. His upset victory in the Virginia gubernatorial election a year after President Biden won the state is going to be used as a model for future GOP candidates, sometimes to excess.
One thing is clear: Youngkin navigated the question of Donald Trump skillfully. He proved that a Republican candidate's choices aren't limited to emulating Liz Cheney or Matt Gaetz. You can give a couple of mildly pro-Trump quotes, even at the risk of giving the Democrats bulletin-board material (the couple things Youngkin did say along these lines were used by Democrat Terry McAuliffe in countless campaign ads). If a Republican does not appear to voters to be particularly Trumpy, talking about Trump instead of local issues or concerns with the current administration will not work.
But in 2024, unless he decides to remain on the golf course, there will be no way to finesse Trump — or ignore him. He will either run or he won't. He will either be the nominee or he won't. And every Republican will be forced to take a position on whether that is a good thing for the party. And Trump is not a person by temperament who will want to make these calculations easy. He nearly upset Youngkin's careful messaging by threatening to parachute into Virginia at the last minute. The entire Republican presidential race will be dictated by such threats (or promises) and the field will be set in part by the fear of crossing Trump. Nikki Haley, for example, briefly struck out against Trump. Now she has said she will not run in 2024 if Trump does.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
It's also going to be the case that a large number of Republicans will win in red states during the midterm elections after embracing Trump during their campaigns. Many people will conclude this strategy will work better than what Youngkin did this year. Republicans such as Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan and Massachusetts Gov. Charlie Baker got elected in states far bluer than Virginia, yet nobody views them as a model for the national party. Some might conclude that Josh Mandel or J.D. Vance are good models for the GOP if they prevail in the former swing state of Ohio.
The midterm elections give quality Republican candidates the freedom to punt on Trump. The presidential race likely won't.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
W. James Antle III is the politics editor of the Washington Examiner, the former editor of The American Conservative, and author of Devouring Freedom: Can Big Government Ever Be Stopped?.
-
GOP megabill would limit judicial oversight of Trump
speed read The domestic policy bill Republicans pushed through the House would protect the Trump administration from the consequences of violating court orders
-
Medicaid: Will millions lose coverage?
Feature House Republicans have proposed a plan to cut Medicaid coverage for millions to help fund the GOP's tax cuts
-
A running list of Trump's conflicts of interest
In Depth A potential Qatari plane is the latest in a series of problematic connections
-
Is Trump trying to take over Congress?
Talking Points Separation of powers at stake in Library of Congress fight
-
Why do GOP lawmakers want to ban state-level AI regulation?
TODAY'S BIG QUESTION House Republicans are pushing to block states from making their own AI laws for the next ten years, even as expert warn the results could be disastrous.
-
Will Republicans tax the rich?
Today's Big Question Trump is waffling on the possibility of taxing wealthy earners
-
A running list of RFK Jr.'s controversies
In Depth The man atop the Department of Health and Human Services has had no shortage of scandals over the years
-
The anger fueling the Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez barnstorming tour
Talking Points The duo is drawing big anti-Trump crowds in red states