Just a few months ago, the notion that Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis was planning to seek the Republican nomination for president seemed more like a forgone conclusion than a far-fetched possibility. But now, a few poorly-received comments and a bump in support for his presumed opponent former President Donald Trump have some questioning the viability of his candidacy. Here's everything you need to know:
What has DeSantis explicitly said about running for president?
Over the summer, DeSantis continually dismissed reports of a presidential run as media speculation. "I mean, I've got a lot on my plate here, and we're doing a lot of stuff, so I would not indulge in some of the stuff and be very careful about what you hear," he told reporters during a press conference, per FloridaPolitics.com. In June, he told Fox News he only thinks about the 2024 race "when people bring up my name."
But in the debate against his defeated midterms challenger Charlie Crist, however, DeSantis notably refused to commit to serving a full term as governor, despite Crist's attempts to make him say otherwise. He also did not address the presidential rumors directly when he was sworn in in January, though he did use his address at the time to slyly juxtapose himself against Trump.
Recently, however, the governor has begun more explicitly hinting at his ambitions, even explicitly referencing a possible Biden match-up should he go for it. "If I were to run," DeSantis told Piers Morgan in a recent interview, "I'm running against Biden. Like [Trump and I] are competing for the Republican, potentially, I get that, but ultimately you know the guy I'm gonna focus on is Biden because I think he's failed the country." When then asked if he believes he could beat Biden, DeSantis replied, "I think so."
Do Republican voters want him to run?
Initially, it seemed so. For months, DeSantis was performing well in 2024 straw polls both with and without Trump, and continued to make gains as time passed, though he and the former president quite frequently swapped spots in the horse race.
For instance, 65 percent of Republican voters and independents who consider themselves either conservative or very conservative told Suffolk University in an early December poll that they wanted DeSantis to run. And a Wall Street Journal survey from that same time frame concluded similarly: "In a hypothetical contest between the two, [DeSantis] beats [Trump], 52 percent to 38 percent, among likely GOP primary voters … ."
But in a Quinnipiac University poll published Feb. 16, in which respondents were asked to pick from a list of 14 confirmed and possible GOP contenders, Trump received 42 percent of the vote among "Republican and Republican-leaning voters," while DeSantis received just 36 percent (still the second most of any other aspirant). When the field was then narrowed to just four GOP candidates — Trump, DeSantis, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, and former Vice President Mike Pence — Republican voters were nearly evenly split between Trump and DeSantis, 43 percent to 41. Relatedly, a January analysis from FiveThirtyEight found that Trump "almost always" leads in polls that include more than two candidates for the Republican nomination, which could be because "opposition to Trump is divided" among multiple contenders. Even more devastatingly, an updated Morning Consult poll released March 21 showed DeSantis with support from just 26 percent of GOP primary voters, tying his record low, while Trump boasted backing from a whopping 54 percent of voters.
Of course, one poll's projections do not an electoral outcome make. Yet "it's the trend that's important, and the trend is unequivocal: Every single one of these polls has shown [DeSantis] faring worse than before, and [Trump] faring better," the Times' Nate Cohn concluded.
DeSantis' "slippage" has come "amidst a particularly rocky stretch of headlines" for the governor, Rafi Schwartz writes for The Week. In one damaging instance, he drew condemnation from his fellow Republicans for claiming that support for Ukraine is not part of America's "vital national interest." He then took another beating after invoking the context of the Manhattan district attorney's reportedly-impending indictment of Trump during remarks otherwise critical of the investigation, which GOP heavyweights perceived as a traitorous waste of breath. Indeed, mused The New York Times' Maggie Haberman, in bringing up the president's "personal conduct," DeSantis "twisted the knife regarding the actions over which [Trump] is likely to be indicted."
Is there anything DeSantis is doing that might hint at a run?
Now that the governor has successfully secured re-election (and doesn't have to pretend he wouldn't be interested in a truncated term if it meant moving to the White House), DeSantis' attention has almost certainly turned toward one thing: 2024. According to CNBC, the governor has already begun to implement the fundraising and campaign infrastructure necessary to investigate a bid. And as is the MO of plenty of White House hopefuls, he also recently released a politically-advantageous autobiography titled The Courage to Be Free: Florida's Blueprint for America's Revival. Meanwhile, he has continued to add to an already-massive war chest, and likely further wooed donors at an exclusive Palm Beach retreat he hosted in late February.
Separately, a March 10 report from The Washington Post indicated that while DeSantis has not publicly revealed his 2024 plans, he has privately described his presumed campaign as a done deal.
What is Trump saying?
Trump has repeatedly taken credit for the governor's popularity, having told Newsmax in June and The Water Cooler in January that he is the reason DeSantis was elected. And that theory holds up in many ways — DeSantis was initially a floundering candidate for governor before aligning himself with Trump and subsequently rising to superstar status within the Republican party. But things between the two have soured as time has passed, a rift that eventually broke into the open in November, when Trump dubbed the governor "Ron De-Sanctimonious" at a pre-midterms rally in Florida.
Trump has also threatened to expose things about DeSantis that "won't be very flattering" should the latter make a run at the White House; vehemently denounced most if not all polling that shows him in second place; taken to social media to suggest the governor once inappropriately partied with teenage girls; and (allegedly) coined yet another derogatory nickname for his presumed rival: Meatball Ron. DeSantis, meanwhile, who long refused to hit back, has now begun to levy similar attacks, though his are still less vitriolic than those of the former president.
Trump announced his third consecutive bid at the White House on Tuesday, Nov. 15. Even with Republicans' midterm losses and the somewhat-wavering pro-Trump sentiment inside the GOP, The Bulwark's Bill Kristol thinks 45 might still pull it off. "Do not underestimate Trump," Kristol tweeted the morning after the announcement. "He could win the presidency again."
Are there any other challenges to a possible DeSantis bid?
Though some analysts interpret it as a sign of weakness, the former president's unusually-early 2024 announcement is likely intended, at least in part, to "spook" any possible rivals — DeSantis included. We'll see, of course, if that actually pays off. (Per Politico's reporting, DeSantis world really couldn't care less).
Further, DeSantis must maintain any of this momentum until any 2024 race officially begins, which could prove difficult depending on what happens between now and then. And of course, as NPR notes, there is also the problem of Florida law, which currently requires those in state office to resign before they run on a federal level. Luckily for DeSantis, the Republican-controlled Florida legislature is likely to repeal the rule in anticipation of his bid.
When might he announce?
When asked about his timeline on Fox & Friends, Desantis subtly confirmed prior reports that suggested a May or June announcement. A few weeks later, in March, he told Piers Morgan that he hasn't "made a final decision" on that matter, but to "stay tuned."
"I've got a lot to do over the next few months in Florida," he said.
Update March 22, 2023: This piece has been updated throughout to reflect updated polling and analysis
