How will Wagner's short-lived mutiny affect the Ukraine invasion?

In a remarkable 24-hour period, Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin staged a rebellion against Russian President Vladimir Putin. Prigozhin accused Russia's military of killing his troops in an artillery strike, proclaimed that Russia had invaded Ukraine under false pretenses, and began a "march for justice" to Moscow. A column of Wagner fighters and armored vehicles captured Russia military bases and met little resistance as it quickly rolled toward Russia's capital.

Putin called Prigozhin's mutiny a "stab in the back," and Wagner forces reportedly shot down six helicopters and an Il-18 command and control aircraft, killing at least 13 Russian airmen, when they attacked the Moscow-bound convoy about halfway to the capital from Rostov-on-Don.

Then, when Wagner's column was about 125 miles from Moscow, Prigozhin abruptly called off the march, saying his troops would return to base to avoid bloodshed. The Kremlin claimed that Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko had brokered a deal under which Prigozhin would end his rebellion and retreat to exile in Belarus, he and his troops would not be prosecuted, and Wagner forces that did not participate in the mutiny would be invited to join Russia's regular military forces in Ukraine.

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Many Ukrainian troops have come to regard Wagner soldiers as the best-trained and best-equipped Russian forces they have encountered during Russia's 16-month invasion. What happens to Putin's war in Ukraine after Prigozhin's short-lived mutiny?

What are the commentators saying?

"For now, the uncertain status of Wagner is bound to be a relief for Ukrainian soldiers," The New York Times reported. And military experts predicted "the Ukrainian military may be able to capitalize on the chaos and weakening morale" in Russia's military to try to make some gains. "If there's chaos in the regime," Polish military analyst Konrad Muzyka told The Wall Street Journal, Russian "soldiers may choose their own lives over fighting for the regime."

The Wagner mutiny did not appear to "substantially" affect Russia's offensive and defensive operations in Ukraine over the weekend, the Institute for the Study of War reported. Putin has "been dealt a severe blow," but he "objectively resolved the Wagner and Prigozhin problem by dissolving the former and expelling the latter," argued Tatiana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. "Putin doesn't need Wagner or Prigozhin. He can manage with his own forces. He's now certainly convinced of that."

It could be that a bunch of "poorly trained" Russian conscripts dropped on the Ukrainian front line as "cannon fodder" are now "thinking 'Why are we even doing this? Why are we here?'" Malcolm Davis at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute told CNN. If Putin is willing to forgive a mutiny that killed Russian airmen and "the Russian military leadership is incompetent, then you could see mass desertion" and more "mutinies and an unwillingness on the part of the rank and file to follow orders."

What happens next?

The "best outcome" from Wagner's rebellion would be that "internal frictions in Russia" distract the Kremlin and draw some "elite, loyal Russian army units" back to defend Russian borders and Moscow, providing "additional opportunities for Ukrainian breakthroughs in their current offensives," retired Australian Maj. Gen. Mick Ryan wrote in The Sydney Morning Herald. "The worst outcome is that Putin, under pressure from hardliners, doubles down on Ukraine," but "the most likely outcome is somewhere in between." At a minimum, he noted, "the withdrawal of Wagner forces will leave a gap to be filled in eastern Ukraine."

And not a small gap, retired U.S. Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges told Times Radio. "Russia has just lost 25,000 soldiers" with Wagner's dissolution, even if some mercenaries enlist, he said. "Every one of them is going to be looked at with suspicion and seen as unreliable." The Wagner "criminals" are "seasoned warriors who are ready to die," Russian opposition figure Gary Kasparov told the Kyiv Post, and one Wagner soldier who fought at Bakhmut is "worth 50" Russian National Guard troops that have "never faced such a task."

"What comes next, surely, is more trouble for Putin in Ukraine," David Ignatius wrote at The Washington Post. "Prigozhin told the truth flat out in the days before his march on Moscow: Ukraine didn't threaten Russia, and Russia's invasion was unnecessary — a mistake of epic proportions. Even Putin, the ice man, can't freeze the burning truth of his Ukraine disaster."

That was "perhaps the true moment when Prigozhin 'crossed the Rubicon,'" when he "fatally undermined" Putin's invasion rationale, Ryan agreed. "Blaming the invasion, not on NATO or Nazis, but on Russian elites is perhaps the most dangerous idea that will be a threat to Putin henceforth." Putin is surely, irrevocably weakened now, but "there is a surplus of uncertainty in the wake of Prigozhin's mutiny," he added. And "there will be more unpredictable outcomes from the uprising, and Ukraine's response, in the coming days."