How far would Russia go for Iran?

Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has arrived in Moscow, hoping to secure a tangible show of support from one of his country's most important international allies.

As Vladimir Putin weighs up how to respond to escalating tensions in the Middle East, the answer will come down to "what is stronger", said Euronews: "the desire to make money on expensive oil and divert the world's attention from Moscow’s war on Ukraine or the fear of losing the ties and contracts built up over the years in the region".

What did the commentators say?

"On the surface, at least, Moscow is fuming" on Tehran's behalf, said Sky News. Russia's foreign ministry has said it "strongly condemns" US air strikes on Iran's nuclear infrastructure, with former president Dmitry Medvedev accusing Donald Trump of starting "a new war" in the region.

Subscribe to The Week

Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

SUBSCRIBE & SAVE

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters

From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.

From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.

Sign up

But this response still "feels more show than substance and if things don't escalate further" it's doubtful the Kremlin's indignation will prove "anything more than rhetoric".

While Iran has backed Russia with weapons for its war in Ukraine, "there might be very little Moscow can or will do to reciprocate", said CNBC. Aside from needing to keep military resources back for its own operations, Russia has to "tread a fine line between placating and assisting ally Iran and keeping the US sweet, as it looks to re-establish ties" with the Trump administration.

Putin's aim may be "to play peacemaker, and to turn the situation to his advantage", said Sky News. His immediate task will be to persuade Araghchi to "limit Iran's response to a symbolic one, and to then return to the negotiating table with America". Trump would then be "in his debt" and "the obvious place he'd want that repaid is Ukraine, in the form of withdrawing US support".

What next?

The collapse of the Iranian regime would rob Russia of yet another important ally and foothold in the Middle East, following the fall of the Assad regime in Syria. This would cost the Kremlin influence, as well as lucrative investments and infrastructure projects.

Putin will also be acutely aware of the symbolism – and potential precedent – of successful Western-backed regime change and removal of a long-standing authoritarian leader. But "things are not quite as bad for Moscow as they may seem", said CNN.

A protracted war in the Middle East would distract international attention – and resources – away from Ukraine, and is likely to lead to a surge in oil prices, which would benefit the Russian economy and war machine. The Israel-Iran conflict is also "opening up the taps, as it were, to diplomatic opportunities for a Kremlin that has faced years of international isolation".

The "honest answer", said Mark Galeotti in The Spectator, is that the US decision to attack Iran is an "embarrassment", a "provocation" and an "opportunity" for Russia – "but likely more of an opportunity than anything else, if Moscow is willing to play it cool".