Iran's allies in the Middle East and around the world

Iran is facing its greatest existential threat since the 1980s but its allies have so far managed only a very muted response.

The Islamic Republic, which has described Israel's attacks on its territory as a "declaration of war", can call on the support of the "Axis of Resistance", made up of political and militant groups in the Middle East. Iran is also part of the so-called Crink group of authoritarian nation states that includes China, Russia and North Korea. With starkly different ideologies and competing strategic objectives, this coalition is better understood as a "marriage of convenience" – and also "desperation", said The Washington Post.

Russia

Iran and Russia have continued to "deepen" military and economic ties in recent years, said the House of Commons Library.

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Tehran has long been suspected by Western allies of supplying Russia with weapons for use in Ukraine and in January the two countries signed a new strategic partnership treaty. While this committed them to "joint exercises and to exchange information", it "did not include a mutual defence clause". In May, Iran also formally entered the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union.

Moscow has condemned Israel's strike on Iran as "unprovoked aggression" but in truth has, of late, "been cosplaying as an ally of Iran", said Owen Matthews in The Spectator. It will pay lip-service to Tehran but the "alliance of convenience is, in the Kremlin's eyes, very much secondary to Russia's more important role as a global power player that can stand alongside the US and China as an arbiter of world affairs".

With Russia also enjoying good relations with Israel, Vladimir Putin could "possibly become a power broker to help end the confrontation", said The Associated Press. On the other hand, there is also a sense in Moscow that a long, drawn-out conflict will "distract global attention from the war in Ukraine and play into Russia's hands by potentially weakening Western support for Kyiv".

China

China continues to be largest purchaser of US-sanctioned Iranian oil, and in 2023 Tehran joined the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, deepening economic ties between the two countries.

Beijing has promised to deliver material critical for ballistic missile production, as President Xi Jinping tries to "insert himself as an influential player in allowing Tehran to rebuild its own arsenal and arm its various disabled proxies", said Devon Cross, a former defence adviser to the US government, in The Times.

But like Russia, China is playing a much bigger game. While it "explicitly condemns Israel's violation of Iran’s sovereignty, security and territorial integrity", it has also "seen an opportunity to cast itself as potential peace broker – and an alternative voice to the United States", said CNN.

North Korea

There should, on the surface at least, be little that unites the Islamic Republic and the secretive Stalinist state, but political necessity and their status as international pariahs has dictated a certain level of cooperation and alignment.

There has long been speculation that North Korea has helped with Iran's nuclear programme. In terms of its own capability, Pyongyang has "defied all international sanctions to build up a formidable arsenal of nuclear warheads and intercontinental ballistic missiles, enough to make any potential attacker think twice", said Frank Gardner on the BBC.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un "could even try to smuggle one of his nuclear warheads – via Russia – to Iran", said the Daily Express.

Iran's proxies

Iran has invested heavily in a network of proxy allies across the Middle East, including Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen and the Islamic Resistance in Iraq. It supported the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad until he was toppled last year.

But the so-called "Axis of Resistance" has so far "remained silent". Its forces have been greatly "diminished" by over two years of Israeli operations, and are now "weighing the risks of engaging against an enemy that has demonstrated overwhelming military superiority", said Le Monde.

Tehran's strategy has long been to use its proxies – chief among them Hezbollah – as its first line of defence in the event of a war with Israel. "The significant weakening of several members of the axis has changed the equation for Iran and limited its options".