Simulation theory: why The Matrix may be closer to fact than fiction

"The Matrix" may have been right all along. The idea that we are all living in a virtual simulation of reality formed the basis of the 1999 cult film, and now some philosophers and an increasing number of scientists are coming round to the idea it might actually be true.

Simulation theory, as it is known, is a "theoretical hypothesis that says what people perceive as reality is actually an advanced, hyper-realistic computer simulation, possibly overseen by a higher being", said BuiltIn.

In the 20 or so years since it first emerged, "philosophers, physicists, technologists and, yes, comedians have been grappling with the idea of our reality being a simulacrum", said Scientific American, which assessed the chances as "about 50-50".

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Where did it come from?

While the idea has deep roots in Western and Eastern philosophical traditions – from Plato's cave allegory to Zhuang Zhou's butterfly dream – the modern version dates from a seminal paper published in 2003 by Nick Bostrom, a Swedish philosopher at the University of Oxford, titled "Are You Living in a Computer Simulation?"

In it he argued that future generations might have mega-computers that could run numerous and detailed simulations of their forebears. The odds are, he said, that we are products of that simulation and may be "simulated minds rather than among the original biological ones".

His hypothesis has since taken root and been developed further, with New York University techno-philosopher David Chalmers on Serious Science describing the higher being responsible for this potential hyper-realistic simulation as a "programmer in the next universe up".

"[They] may just be a teenager," he said, "hacking on a computer and running five universes in the background". However, "it might be someone who is nonetheless omniscient, all-knowing and all-powerful about our world".

His 2022 book "Reality+: Virtual Worlds and the Problems of Philosophy" is "far and away the most credible articulation of simulation theory to date", said Wired, with "500 pages of immaculately worked-through philosophical positions and propositions, rendered in clean, if rarely shiny, prose".

Who backs the theory?

Nowadays simulation theorists are a "digitised dime a dozen" said Wired, with Elon Musk undoubtedly their "fearless leader". The owner of SpaceX, Tesla and X has stated that the odds that we are actually living in "base reality" – namely the physical universe – are billions to one. At the end of 2021, he responded to a tweet about the anniversary of the crude tennis video game Pong from 1972 by writing: "49 years later, games are photo-realistic 3D worlds. What does that trend continuing imply about our reality?"

And the idea is also "surprisingly popular among philosophers and even some scientists", said The Guardian.

The claims have been afforded "some credence by repetition by luminaries no less esteemed" than Neil deGrasse Tyson, director of Hayden Planetarium in New York, known as "America's favourite science populariser", said Scientific American.

Is there any evidence to back it up?

Dr Melvin Vopson, from the University of Portsmouth, has claimed recent developments in a branch of science known as information physics – which suggests that physical reality is made up of bits of information – "appear to support this possibility".

According to Indy 100, his previous research proposed that "all elementary particles (the smallest known building blocks in the universe), store information about themselves, much like DNA in humans". His Second Law of Infodynamics stated that "entropy – the degree of randomness or disorder – within an isolated information system either remains constant or decreases over time".

In other words, said the news site, "the system becomes less and less chaotic, implying that there is some kind of mechanism governing it rather than random chance".

In a paper published earlier this year, Vopson claimed that the decrease of entropy in information systems over time could prove that the universe has a built-in "data optimisation and compression", which speaks to its digital nature.

"This approach, where excess information is removed, resembles the process of a computer deleting or compressing waste code to save storage space and optimise power consumption." As a result, this "supports the idea that we're living in a simulation".

All of these claims require "significant further testing and verification before even being considered plausible", wrote Darren Orf for Popular Mechanics.

As IFLScience noted, there are as many research papers refuting our digital existence as there are promoting its scientific inevitability.

It's "possible", therefore, that Vopson's Second Law of Infodynamics "could lead to some interesting discoveries", concluded Orf, "but the question first pondered by Plato remains unanswered".