No candidate in Trump's position since the advent of TV, modern polling has won the popular vote

Can Donald Trump pull off what has so far been impossible in the modern era? He'll have to if he wants to be president. Looking at the last 16 consecutive elections, at this point in the campaign a candidate in Trump's position has never gone on to win the popular vote, Politico reports.
"When you come out of the conventions, the leader in the last 16 elections has not lost the popular vote," said Christopher Wlezien, a University of Texas professor who co-authored The Timeline of Presidential Elections: How Campaigns Do (and Do Not) Matter. Wlezien explained that "not everybody's locked in" at this point in the election season but "there's a lot" who already have their minds made up.
This news will be particularly concerning to Republicans, as early and no-excuse absentee votes are much more widespread now, and start as early as next month. Yet Trump has blasted current polls as being biased media propaganda, and others have argued that Trump voters might not tell pollsters they are backing Trump when they receive phone calls. Yet Trump didn't out-perform in primary polls, and does not do better in anonymous online polls, giving little evidence to such claims.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
Since the proliferation of television and modern polling, there has never been a candidate in Trump's position who has come back from behind at this point. Trump may have a chance to make up lost ground in the three presidential debates, the first of which is Sept. 26, but experts like Wlezien say even that might be too little too late.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Jeva Lange was the executive editor at TheWeek.com. She formerly served as The Week's deputy editor and culture critic. She is also a contributor to Screen Slate, and her writing has appeared in The New York Daily News, The Awl, Vice, and Gothamist, among other publications. Jeva lives in New York City. Follow her on Twitter.
-
5 exclusive cartoons about Trump and Putin negotiating peace
Cartoons Artists take on alternative timelines, missing participants, and more
By The Week US Published
-
The AI arms race
Talking Point The fixation on AI-powered economic growth risks drowning out concerns around the technology which have yet to be resolved
By The Week UK Published
-
Why Jannik Sinner's ban has divided the tennis world
In the Spotlight The timing of the suspension handed down to the world's best male tennis player has been met with scepticism
By The Week UK Published
-
Giant schnauzer wins top prize at Westminster show
Speed Read Monty won best in show at the 149th Westminster Kennel Club dog show
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Beyoncé, Kendrick Lamar take top Grammys
Speed Read Beyoncé took home album of the year for 'Cowboy Carter' and Kendrick Lamar's diss track 'Not Like Us' won five awards
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
The Louvre is giving 'Mona Lisa' her own room
Speed Read The world's most-visited art museum is getting a major renovation
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Honda and Nissan in merger talks
Speed Read The companies are currently Japan's second and third-biggest automakers, respectively
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Taylor Swift wraps up record-shattering Eras tour
Speed Read The pop star finally ended her long-running tour in Vancouver, Canada
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Drake claims illegal boosting, defamation
Speed Read The rapper accused Universal Music of boosting Kendrick Lamar's diss track and said UMG allowed him to be falsely accused of pedophilia
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published
-
'Wicked' and 'Gladiator II' ignite holiday box office
Speed Read The combination of the two movies revitalized a struggling box office
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Jussie Smollet conviction overturned on appeal
Speed Read The Illinois Supreme Court overturned the actor's conviction on charges of staging a racist and homophobic attack against himself in 2019
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published