This professor has predicted the winner of every presidential election since 1984. He thinks Trump will win.

One history professor at American University has developed a presidential prediction system that has correctly forecasted the last eight presidential election winners. And this year, Professor Allan Lichtman said all signs are pointing to a Donald Trump victory.
Lichtman's system, which he outlined in his book Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House 2016, identifies the predicting factors of an election as: party mandate, incumbency, whether there's a "serious contest for the incumbent party nomination," the short-term and long-term economies, the strength of any third-party candidates, social unrest, scandal, foreign and military successes and failures, policy changes, and the charisma of both the incumbent and the challenger. Polls aren't taken into consideration, except to rate the strength of a third-party candidate.
Lichtman said Trump is winning six of the 13 keys, including party mandate, as the Republicans swept the midterm elections. He also pointed to Clinton's lack of charisma. "Very, very narrowly, the keys point to a Trump victory," Lichtman told The Independent. "But I would say, more to the point, they point to a generic Republican victory, because I believe that given the unprecedented nature of the Trump candidacy and Trump himself, he could defy all odds and lose even though the verdict of history is in his favor."
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
Lichtman also noted that Trump has made this election the "most difficult election to assess since 1984," and that America has really never had a candidate quite like Trump before. "This would also suggest ... the possibility this election could go either way," Lichtman said. "Nobody should be complacent. No matter who you're for, you gotta get out and vote."
You can read the full explanation of Lichtman's prediction system over at The Independent.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
-
What does 'conquering' Gaza mean to Israel?
Today's Big Question Benjamin Netanyahu's cabinet has approved a plan to displace much of the Palestinian population while seizing and occupying the territory on a long-term basis.
-
Casey Means: the controversial 'wellness influencer' nominated for surgeon general
In the Spotlight Means has drawn controversy for her closeness to RFK Jr.
-
Trump taps Fox News' Pirro for DC attorney post
speed read The president has named Fox News host Jeanine Pirro to be the top federal prosecutor for Washington, replacing acting US Attorney Ed Martin
-
Trump taps Fox News' Pirro for DC attorney post
speed read The president has named Fox News host Jeanine Pirro to be the top federal prosecutor for Washington, replacing acting US Attorney Ed Martin
-
Trump, UK's Starmer outline first post-tariff deal
speed read President Donald Trump and British Prime Minister Kier Starmer struck a 'historic' agreement to eliminate some of the former's imposed tariffs
-
Fed leaves rates unchanged as Powell warns on tariffs
speed read The Federal Reserve says the risks of higher inflation and unemployment are increasing under Trump's tariffs
-
Denmark to grill US envoy on Greenland spying report
speed read The Trump administration ramped up spying on Greenland, says reporting by The Wall Street Journal
-
Supreme Court allows transgender troop ban
speed read The US Supreme Court will let the Trump administration begin executing its ban on transgender military service members
-
Hollywood confounded by Trump's film tariff idea
speed read President Trump proposed a '100% tariff' on movies 'produced in foreign lands'
-
Trump offers migrants $1,000 to 'self-deport'
speed read The Department of Homeland Security says undocumented immigrants can leave the US in a more 'dignified way'
-
Trump is not sure he must follow the Constitution
speed read When asked about due process for migrants in a TV interview, President Trump said he didn't know whether he had to uphold the Fifth Amendment