This professor has predicted the winner of every presidential election since 1984. He thinks Trump will win.
One history professor at American University has developed a presidential prediction system that has correctly forecasted the last eight presidential election winners. And this year, Professor Allan Lichtman said all signs are pointing to a Donald Trump victory.
Lichtman's system, which he outlined in his book Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House 2016, identifies the predicting factors of an election as: party mandate, incumbency, whether there's a "serious contest for the incumbent party nomination," the short-term and long-term economies, the strength of any third-party candidates, social unrest, scandal, foreign and military successes and failures, policy changes, and the charisma of both the incumbent and the challenger. Polls aren't taken into consideration, except to rate the strength of a third-party candidate.
Lichtman said Trump is winning six of the 13 keys, including party mandate, as the Republicans swept the midterm elections. He also pointed to Clinton's lack of charisma. "Very, very narrowly, the keys point to a Trump victory," Lichtman told The Independent. "But I would say, more to the point, they point to a generic Republican victory, because I believe that given the unprecedented nature of the Trump candidacy and Trump himself, he could defy all odds and lose even though the verdict of history is in his favor."
The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
Lichtman also noted that Trump has made this election the "most difficult election to assess since 1984," and that America has really never had a candidate quite like Trump before. "This would also suggest ... the possibility this election could go either way," Lichtman said. "Nobody should be complacent. No matter who you're for, you gotta get out and vote."
You can read the full explanation of Lichtman's prediction system over at The Independent.
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
-
5 critical cartoons about the proposed Russia-Ukraine peace dealCartoons Artists take on talking turkey, Putin's puppet, and more
-
Could Trump run for a third term?The Explainer Constitutional amendment limits US presidents to two terms, but Trump diehards claim there is a loophole
-
Political cartoons for November 28Cartoons Friday's political cartoons include economic diagnosis, climate distractions, and more
-
Judge halts Trump’s DC Guard deploymentSpeed Read The Trump administration has ‘infringed upon the District’s right to govern itself,’ the judge ruled
-
Trump accuses Democrats of sedition meriting ‘death’Speed Read The president called for Democratic lawmakers to be arrested for urging the military to refuse illegal orders
-
Court strikes down Texas GOP gerrymanderSpeed Read The Texas congressional map ordered by Trump is likely an illegal racial gerrymander, the court ruled
-
Trump defends Saudi prince, shrugs off Khashoggi murderSpeed Read The president rebuked an ABC News reporter for asking Mohammed bin Salman about the death of a Washington Post journalist at the Saudi Consulate in 2018
-
Congress passes bill to force release of Epstein filesSpeed Read The Justice Department will release all files from its Jeffrey Epstein sex-trafficking investigation
-
Trump says he will sell F-35 jets to Saudi ArabiaSpeed Read The president plans to make several deals with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman this week
-
Judge blasts ‘profound’ errors in Comey caseSpeed Read ‘Government misconduct’ may necessitate dismissing the charges against the former FBI director altogether
-
Ecuador rejects push to allow US military basesSpeed Read Voters rejected a repeal of a constitutional ban on US and other foreign military bases in the country