This professor has predicted the winner of every presidential election since 1984. He thinks Trump will win.
One history professor at American University has developed a presidential prediction system that has correctly forecasted the last eight presidential election winners. And this year, Professor Allan Lichtman said all signs are pointing to a Donald Trump victory.
Lichtman's system, which he outlined in his book Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House 2016, identifies the predicting factors of an election as: party mandate, incumbency, whether there's a "serious contest for the incumbent party nomination," the short-term and long-term economies, the strength of any third-party candidates, social unrest, scandal, foreign and military successes and failures, policy changes, and the charisma of both the incumbent and the challenger. Polls aren't taken into consideration, except to rate the strength of a third-party candidate.
Lichtman said Trump is winning six of the 13 keys, including party mandate, as the Republicans swept the midterm elections. He also pointed to Clinton's lack of charisma. "Very, very narrowly, the keys point to a Trump victory," Lichtman told The Independent. "But I would say, more to the point, they point to a generic Republican victory, because I believe that given the unprecedented nature of the Trump candidacy and Trump himself, he could defy all odds and lose even though the verdict of history is in his favor."
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
Lichtman also noted that Trump has made this election the "most difficult election to assess since 1984," and that America has really never had a candidate quite like Trump before. "This would also suggest ... the possibility this election could go either way," Lichtman said. "Nobody should be complacent. No matter who you're for, you gotta get out and vote."
You can read the full explanation of Lichtman's prediction system over at The Independent.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
-
4 ways to give back this holiday season
The Explainer If your budget is feeling squeezed, remember that money is not the only way you can be generous around the holidays
By Becca Stanek, The Week US Published
-
4 tips for hosting an ecofriendly Thanksgiving
The Week Recommends Coming together for the holidays typically produces a ton of waste, but with proper preparation, you can have an environmentally friendly gathering.
By Theara Coleman, The Week US Published
-
Jussie Smollet conviction overturned on appeal
Speed Read The Illinois Supreme Court overturned the actor's conviction on charges of staging a racist and homophobic attack against himself in 2019
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Global court issues arrest warrant for Netanyahu
Speed Read The International Criminal Court issued warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, who stand accused of war crimes
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Gaetz bows out, Trump pivots to Pam Bondi
Speed Read Gaetz withdrew from attorney generation consideration, making way for longtime Trump loyalist Pam Bondi
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published
-
GOP's Mace seeks federal anti-trans bathroom ban
Speed Read Rep. Nancy Mace of South Carolina has introduced legislation to ban transgender people from using federal facilities
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published
-
Ukraine fires ATACMS, Russia ups hybrid war
Speed Read Ukraine shot U.S.-provided long-range missiles and Russia threatened retaliation
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
New York DA floats 4-year Trump sentencing freeze
Speed Read President-elect Donald Trump's sentencing is on hold, and his lawyers are pushing to dismiss the case while he's in office
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published
-
Wyoming judge strikes down abortion, pill bans
Speed Read The judge said the laws — one of which was a first-in-the-nation prohibition on the use of medication to end pregnancy — violated the state's constitution
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
US sanctions Israeli West Bank settler group
Speed Read The Biden administration has imposed sanctions on Amana, Israel's largest settlement development organization
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published
-
Gaetz ethics report in limbo as sex allegations emerge
Speed Read A lawyer representing two women alleges that Matt Gaetz paid them for sex, and one witnessed him having sex with minor
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published