If Election Day got bumped up to Sept. 26, FiveThirtyEight predicts Donald Trump would claim a huge victory. In Monday's now-cast election predictor, released hours ahead of the first presidential debate between Trump and Hillary Clinton, the Republican presidential nominee's chances of winning were nearly 10 points higher than Clinton's, 54.9 percent to 45.1 percent.
Of course, a lot can change over the course of 43 days. But the trends over the last couple months in this particular FiveThirtyEight forecast have shown Trump steadily gaining ground and Clinton steadily losing it. After Trump briefly pulled ahead in late July, Clinton's lead peaked on Aug. 8, when she had a 96.4 percent chance of winning and Trump had just a 3.6 percent chance. Since then, it's been a slow but steady downhill slide for Clinton.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
-
6 productivity-ready homes with great officesFeature Featuring an office with a gas fireplace in Oregon and a shared workspace with wraparound windows in Massachusetts
-
How quarterly estimated tax payments work and when they are dueThe Explainer Freelancers, small business owners and those with a side hustle may need to make more frequent tax payments
-
'Alligator Alcatraz will be a blight on the Everglades'Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
-
Trump judge pick told DOJ to defy courts, lawyer saysSpeed Read Emil Bove, a top Justice Department official nominated by Trump for a lifetime seat, stands accused of encouraging government lawyers to mislead the courts and defy judicial orders
-
Mamdani upsets Cuomo in NYC mayoral primarySpeed Read Democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani beat out Andrew Cuomo in New York City's Democratic mayoral primary
-
Supreme Court clears third-country deportationsSpeed Read The court allowed Trump to temporarily resume deporting migrants to countries they aren't from
-
Judges order release of 2 high-profile migrantsSpeed Read Kilmar Ábrego García is back in the US and Mahmoud Khalil is allowed to go home — for now
-
US assessing bomb damage to Iran nuclear sitesSpeed Read Trump claims this weekend's US bombing obliterated Tehran's nuclear program, while JD Vance insists the US is 'not at war with Iran'
-
Trump's LA deployment in limbo after court rulingsSpeed Read Judge Breyer ruled that Trump's National Guard deployment to Los Angeles was an 'illegal' overreach. But a federal appellate court halted the ruling.
-
Marines, National Guard in LA can detain Americansspeed read The troops have been authorized to detain anyone who interferes with immigration raids
-
Trump vows 'very big force' against parade protestersSpeed Read The parade, which will shut down much of the capital, will celebrate the US Army's 250th anniversary and Trump's 79th birthday
