New national poll confirms Hillary Clinton's rise after Donald Trump video leak, debate


Hillary Clinton has expanded her lead since Sunday's debate against Donald Trump, according to a Reuters/Ipsos tracking poll released Tuesday. Clinton beats Trump by 8 percentage points among likely voters, 45 percent to 37 percent, up from a 5-point lead last week; 18 percent of voters said they would support neither Trump nor Clinton. Trump's lewd hot-mic recording leaked on Friday does not appear to have lowered Trump's already low poll numbers among women, but Clinton is now almost tied with him among evangelical Christians, a group Trump led by 12 points in July. In the new poll, 53 percent of debate watchers said Clinton won while 32 percent picked Trump. (The poll included 2,386 American adults and has a likely voter credibility interval of 3 percentage points.)
An NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll before the debate but after the vulgar video found Clinton with an 11-point lead over Trump in a four-way race, but Trump clawed back 2 percentage points after the debate, losing 46 percent to 37 percent Oct. 8-10. Elections are decided by state electors, however, and Trump is running into problems in key swing states, as well as traditionally safe GOP states like Arizona and Utah — a poll of Utah conducted Monday and Tuesday by Y2 Analytics found Trump and Clinton tied in the Beehive State at 26 percent apiece, with third-party conservative Evan McMullin at 22 percent and Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson at 14 percent.
The current polling is "a huge problem for Donald Trump," CNN's John King explained Tuesday night. "A lot of people actually think this means game over." Donald Trump's most committed supporters do not, The New York Times reports, but everyone else can watch King lay out Trump's daunting math below. Peter Weber
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Peter has worked as a news and culture writer and editor at The Week since the site's launch in 2008. He covers politics, world affairs, religion and cultural currents. His journalism career began as a copy editor at a financial newswire and has included editorial positions at The New York Times Magazine, Facts on File, and Oregon State University.
-
Settling the West Bank: a death knell for a Palestine state?
In the Spotlight The reality on the ground is that the annexation of the West Bank is all but a done deal
-
Sudoku medium: August 23, 2025
The Week's daily medium sudoku puzzle
-
Sudoku hard: August 23, 2025
The Week's daily hard sudoku puzzle
-
Judge: Trump's US attorney in NJ serving unlawfully
Speed Read The appointment of Trump's former personal defense lawyer, Alina Habba, as acting US attorney in New Jersey was ruled 'unlawful'
-
Third judge rejects DOJ's Epstein records request
Speed Read Judge Richard Berman was the third and final federal judge to reject DOJ petitions to unseal Epstein-related grand jury material
-
Texas OKs gerrymander sought by Trump
Speed Read The House approved a new congressional map aimed at flipping Democratic-held seats to Republican control
-
Israel starts Gaza assault, approves West Bank plan
Speed Read Israel forces pushed into the outskirts of Gaza City and Netanyahu's government gave approval for a settlement to cut the occupied Palestinian territory in two
-
Court says labor board's structure unconstitutional
Speed Read The ruling has broad implications for labor rights enforcement in Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi
-
Feds seek harsh charges in DC arrests, except for rifles
Speed Read The DOJ said 465 arrests had been made in D.C. since Trump federalized law enforcement there two weeks ago
-
Trump taps Missouri AG to help lead FBI
Speed Read Missouri Attorney General Andrew Bailey has been appointed FBI co-deputy director, alongside Dan Bongino
-
Trump warms to Kyiv security deal in summit
Speed Read Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called Trump's support for guaranteeing his country's security 'a major step forward'