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Poll Watch

New poll shows Democrats have a good shot at flipping GOP Senate seats in Arizona, Nevada, and Tennessee

Democrats have a real shot to pick off three Republican Senate seats in November, according to a new Axios/SurveyMonkey poll that shows the Democrat beating all three Republicans vying for an open seat in Arizona, ousting Sen. Dean Heller (R) in Nevada by 6 percentage points, and leading the GOP candidate in Tennessee, Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R), by a statistically insignificant 1 point. "The poll provides new evidence that Republicans' hold on the Senate may not be as solid as it once looked," Axios notes, though "the overall Senate map in this election still favors the GOP."

Democrats need to pick up two seats to gain control of the Senate in November, and a previous Axios/SurveyMonkey poll showed five Democrats at risk of losing their seats to Republican challengers. At the same time, Axios warns, "Democrats have been clearly outperforming in the special elections since Trump became president." On the issues, Republicans may be buoyed by the economy, but half of all voters in the three states surveyed want to fix the Affordable Care Act while only about 30 percent want to repeal it, and 64 percent of voters support protecting DREAMers and 71 percent favor a path to citizenship for immigrants rather than deportation.

The poll was conducted online April 2-23 with 1,667 registered voters in Arizona, 1,332 in Nevada, and 1,639 in Tennessee. The modeled error estimate is 4 percentage points for Arizona and Tennessee and 5 points for Nevada.