Trump absurdly claims poll numbers higher than Lincoln as midterms countdown begins

Saturday marked 100 days left until the 2018 midterm elections, and on Sunday, President Trump tweeted claims of enormous popularity:

The president's hunch is correct: There is something wrong. Almost everything, in fact.

Though his phrasing isn't clear, Trump is likely referring to his own popularity among Republican voters — he has tweeted about this before — and he probably has in mind a June poll showing a 90 percent approval rating within the GOP. That is indeed high, but it is not a record: Former President George W. Bush polled higher shortly after the 9/11 attacks.

Subscribe to The Week

Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

SUBSCRIBE & SAVE

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters

From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.

From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.

Sign up

Moreover, it is impossible to say whether Trump is more popular among Republicans than Lincoln, as presidential polling did not exist in Lincoln's lifetime. It began in 1936.

Of course, Trump is not up for election this year. The main prize to be won in national politics is control of the House of Representatives, which Republicans have held since the Tea Party election of 2010.

Democrats need to gain 23 seats to flip the House, and current polling gives them a slight edge to win. President Trump's national approval rating has stabilized in the low-40s; for comparison, President Obama's rating was around 45 percent when his party lost 63 seats in the first midterm race of his administration. Still, a word of caution: Most polling models predicted a Trump loss two years ago.