New CNN poll gives Democrats 13-point lead on congressional ballot, but Democrats are still on edge

Democrats head into Tuesday's midterm elections with a 13-point lead over Republicans on the generic congressional ballot, according to a CNN/SSRS poll released Monday. The Democrats' 55 percent to 42 percent lead among likely voters is unchanged from early October, narrower than the party's lead before the 2006 Democratic wave election, and a little wider than the GOP's 10-point lead before its 2010 red wave, CNN says. Polls from NBC News/Wall Street Journal and ABC News/Washington Post released Sunday found Democrats with slimmer leads of 7 points and 8 points, respectively.

The Democrats' lead in the CNN poll is premised on lopsided support among women, independents, and black and Latino voters. About 42 percent of likely voters say their vote will be to register opposition to President Trump while 28 percent said it will be to support him. Trump's approval rating in the poll is 39 percent. Democrats have only a 4-point edge in voter enthusiasm. SRSS conducted the poll for CNN by phone Nov. 1-3 among 1,518 adults, including 1,151 likely voters. The margin of sampling error is ±3.1 percentage points for all adults, ±3.5 points for likely voters.

Polls notwithstanding, "on the cusp of Tuesday's vote, many Democrats are as anxious as they are hopeful," says Julie Pace at The Associated Press. "Their memories from 2016, when they watched in disbelief as Donald Trump defied polls, expectations, and political norms, are still fresh. And as Trump travels the country armed with a divisive and racially charged closing campaign message, the test for Democrats now feels at once similar and more urgent than it did two years ago: They failed to stop Trump then, what if they fall short again?" Saturday Night Live captured this tension in a bitingly on-point fake midterm commercial. You can watch below. Peter Weber

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