NBC's Steve Kornacki lays out the Democrats' very narrow path to a Senate majority


Democrats are feeling slightly more comfortably optimistic about their chances to flip the House in Tuesday's midterms. That's partly because of the unusually large battlefield, but also "one of the things we've seen on the House side is the polls in the individual races in the final days, they do seem to be moving in the Democratic direction," NBC national political correspondent Steve Kornacki said on MSNBC's 11th Hour Monday night.
"Now, the polls can be wrong, they can miss things, so we will see what that leads to tomorrow," he said. "But we did want to say, well, if the House does end up moving at the last minute in the Democrats' direction, does that bring the Senate back into the picture? We've talked about the long path there for Democrats, so let's just take a look at that. It's a possibility tomorrow, let's put it like that. Let's see what it would take for Democrats." And he moved the states around, briefly explaining why Democrats might possibly win each one (though Tennessee was a bridge too far).
For what it's worth, FiveThirtyEight gives Democrats a 19.1 percent chance of winning the Senate. "That is an awful lot to ask for if you are Democrats," Kornacki concluded. "Between Tennessee, Texas, you gotta see a surprise there tomorrow for Democrats, and then everything has to go their way after that."
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Peter has worked as a news and culture writer and editor at The Week since the site's launch in 2008. He covers politics, world affairs, religion and cultural currents. His journalism career began as a copy editor at a financial newswire and has included editorial positions at The New York Times Magazine, Facts on File, and Oregon State University.
-
Thai fish pie with crispy turmeric potatoes recipe
The Week Recommends Tasty twist on the Lancashire hot pot is given a golden glow
-
Palestine Action: protesters or terrorists?
Talking Point Damaging RAF equipment at Brize Norton blurs line between activism and sabotage, but proscription is a drastic step
-
Trump's strikes on Iran: a 'spectacular success'?
In Depth Military humiliations 'expose the brittleness' of Tehran's ageing regime, but risk reinforcing its commitment to its nuclear program
-
Canadian man dies in ICE custody
Speed Read A Canadian citizen with permanent US residency died at a federal detention center in Miami
-
GOP races to revise megabill after Senate rulings
Speed Read A Senate parliamentarian ruled that several changes to Medicaid included in Trump's "One Big Beautiful Bill" were not permissible
-
Supreme Court lets states ax Planned Parenthood funds
Speed Read The court ruled that Planned Parenthood cannot sue South Carolina over the state's effort to deny it funding
-
Trump plans Iran talks, insists nuke threat gone
Speed Read 'The war is done' and 'we destroyed the nuclear,' said President Trump
-
Trump embraces NATO after budget vow, charm offensive
Speed Read The president reversed course on his longstanding skepticism of the trans-Atlantic military alliance
-
Trump judge pick told DOJ to defy courts, lawyer says
Speed Read Emil Bove, a top Justice Department official nominated by Trump for a lifetime seat, stands accused of encouraging government lawyers to mislead the courts and defy judicial orders
-
Mamdani upsets Cuomo in NYC mayoral primary
Speed Read Democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani beat out Andrew Cuomo in New York City's Democratic mayoral primary
-
Supreme Court clears third-country deportations
Speed Read The court allowed Trump to temporarily resume deporting migrants to countries they aren't from