NBC's Steve Kornacki lays out the Democrats' very narrow path to a Senate majority

Democrats are feeling slightly more comfortably optimistic about their chances to flip the House in Tuesday's midterms. That's partly because of the unusually large battlefield, but also "one of the things we've seen on the House side is the polls in the individual races in the final days, they do seem to be moving in the Democratic direction," NBC national political correspondent Steve Kornacki said on MSNBC's 11th Hour Monday night.

"Now, the polls can be wrong, they can miss things, so we will see what that leads to tomorrow," he said. "But we did want to say, well, if the House does end up moving at the last minute in the Democrats' direction, does that bring the Senate back into the picture? We've talked about the long path there for Democrats, so let's just take a look at that. It's a possibility tomorrow, let's put it like that. Let's see what it would take for Democrats." And he moved the states around, briefly explaining why Democrats might possibly win each one (though Tennessee was a bridge too far).

For what it's worth, FiveThirtyEight gives Democrats a 19.1 percent chance of winning the Senate. "That is an awful lot to ask for if you are Democrats," Kornacki concluded. "Between Tennessee, Texas, you gotta see a surprise there tomorrow for Democrats, and then everything has to go their way after that."

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