Political prognosticators suggest Democrats have major momentum on the eve of the midterms

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published 5 November 2018

Democrats' chances of making major gains in the House are looking better than ever.

On Monday, the Cook Political Report moved nine House races towards the Democrats. This includes Pennsylvania's 10th District, where the race between incumbent Republican Rep. Scott Perry and Democratic challenger George Scott has moved from "lean Republican" to "toss-up." Polls in this race have shown Perry with a very slight edge over Scott.

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In two other races, the Cook Political Report still favors the Republicans but now predicts that Democrats have a better shot: both Florida's 25th District and Michigan's 6th District have moved from "likely Republican" to "lean Republican." Those two districts are currently represented by Republicans. Washington's 8th District, where an incumbent Republican is vacating his seat, has also moved from toss-up to "lean Democratic."

On the eve of the election, the Report has listed 28 seats as likely or leaning Democratic, and 30 as toss-ups. Democrats, who now have a 13-point lead on the generic congressional ballot, need only end Tuesday night with a net gain of 23 seats in order to take control of the House. Still, some forecasters are warning that the so-called blue wave is far from certain, with FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver noting that Republicans keeping control of the House is still "extremely possible."

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Brendan worked as a culture writer at The Week from 2018 to 2023, covering the entertainment industry, including film reviews, television recaps, awards season, the box office, major movie franchises and Hollywood gossip. He has written about film and television for outlets including Bloody Disgusting, Showbiz Cheat Sheet, Heavy and The Celebrity Cafe.

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