With little more than a week to go until the Democratic Iowa caucus, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) is in command in the state, a new poll from The New York Times and Siena College revealed Saturday.
Sanders picked up 25 percent support in the latest survey, ahead of former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, former Vice President Joe Biden, and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), all of whom are huddled closely at 18, 17, and 15 percent, respectively. That's a fairly sizable lead for Sanders, but as the Times points out, Iowans are known to shake things up late in the game, so nothing's a given in what's been a topsy-turvy race all year. But, for the moment, it doesn't look like Sanders' absence from the campaign trail because of the Senate impeachment trial has hurt him — indeed, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) reportedly filled in for him to much fanfare Saturday.
The Times did highlight, however, that Sanders' lead is contradictory to another key element in the poll. The majority of Iowa Democrats prefer a candidate who is more moderate than most Democrats at 55 percent, compared to just 38 percent who want someone more liberal than the average party member. Sanders, it's safe to say, falls into the latter camp. With candidates like Biden and Buttigieg lumped together in second and third, along with Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) at 8 percent, it appears that those moderate voters are split. It remains to be seen if they'll coalesce in the lead up to the caucus, but if they don't they may cancel each other out in the process.
The New York Times/Siena College Research Institute survey of 1,689 registered voters in Iowa, including 584 Democratic caucusgoers, was conducted from Jan. 20 to Jan. 23. The margin of error for the Democratic caucus electorate is 4.8 percentage points. Read more at The New York Times.