Biden is holding onto his leads in midwestern swing states — but barely

Less than two months from election day, polls are predicting a narrow win for Democratic nominee Joe Biden.

The 2020 race will largely come down to a handful swing states, including typically blue midwestern states that President Trump surprisingly won in 2016. Biden continues to hold on to most of those tossup contests and the national vote in a handful of polls released this week, with neither side of the race gaining a decisive advantage after last month's party conventions.

A collection of Morning Consult polls released Wednesday shows 11 states' opinions on the 2020 contest have remained consistent from before the conventions. Biden did build a few points of support in Michigan and Wisconsin, and even took over the lead from Trump in Arizona. Meanwhile Trump gained a few points of support in Minnesota, North Carolina, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, though all these changes were within the polls' margins of error ranging from 2–4 percentage points. An NBC News/Marist poll out Wednesday meanwhile gives Biden a sizeable 9-point lead in Pennsylvania.

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In southern states, including those that typically go red, the presidential contest remains neck and neck. Biden and Trump are statistically tied in Georgia, Texas, and North Carolina, while Biden has a thin 5-point advantage in Florida, per the Morning Consult poll. An NBC News poll released Tuesday painted a bleaker picture for Biden in Florida, giving the two presidential candidates equal standing as Trump wins over Latino voters.

Morning Consult surveyed 18,465 likely voters across the 11 states from Aug. 29-Sept. 7. NBC News/Marist surveyed 1,147 likely Pennsylvania voters with a 4.4 point margin of error.