Trump has turned Texas and Arizona purple, maybe even blue, Republicans worry


"Modern Texas as a swing state?" David Weigel asks at The Washington Post. "Democrats started to dream it after 2008," and "Republicans started to warn about it in 2013," but in 2014, "Republicans dominated every statewide race — as they had for 20 years — and made inroads with Hispanic voters. 'Blue Texas' became a punchline. Then came Donald Trump."
California and New Mexico have become fairly reliable Democratic states, and Republicans in neighboring Arizona and Texas are starting to get nervous about a solidly blue Southwest. Some blame President Trump.
"Democrats are on track to win big in Arizona next month — from the presidential election to the state House," Sabrina Rodriguez reports at Politico. The shift predates Trump, but it "has only been further accelerated over the past four years by his divisive presidency and the Arizona GOP's evolution from the party of John McCain to that of Trump." There are clear signs Trump's politics "won't play well in Arizona in 2020 — or ever," Rodriguez adds, and if the state flips, "Democrats could cement control of state politics, as they have in other suburban-heavy states, like Colorado and Virginia."
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
Still, "unlike Arizona, where defeat in the suburbs can close off the GOP's path to a majority, Texas has millions of rural, White, conservative voters who are alienated from the modern Democratic Party and can overwhelm it with high turnout," Weigel cautions.
But even in Texas — especially the suburbs and exurbs around Dallas and Fort Worth — "first suburban women and more recently, their husbands," have been "moving from one camp to the other," Southern Methodist University political science professor Cal Jillson tells the Post. "Those have traditionally been Republican voters, they're now in transition, some of them will go home, others of them will vote for [Democratic nominee Joe] Biden over Trump. That's where the real movement is."
"Trump destabilizes politics enough that you can see Texas is in play, but it probably wouldn't be if you had a regular Republican candidate for the presidency," Jillson added. At least not yet.
"It's Republicans' own fault this is happening," veteran Arizona GOP strategist Chuck Coughlin told Politico. "Under the party of Trump, you're just vilifying people, not coming up with ideas. ... Like Sen. John McCain would say, 'It's always darkest before it's totally black.' And, in this case, black is blue. I hope the party will do some soul-reflecting."
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Peter has worked as a news and culture writer and editor at The Week since the site's launch in 2008. He covers politics, world affairs, religion and cultural currents. His journalism career began as a copy editor at a financial newswire and has included editorial positions at The New York Times Magazine, Facts on File, and Oregon State University.
-
Art review: Diane Arbus: Constellation
Feature Park Avenue Armory, New York City, through Aug. 17
-
July fiction: Summers to remember
Feature Featuring the latest summer-themed novels from Darrow Farr, Lucas Schaefer, and more
-
Why are flash floods in Texas so deadly?
Today's Big Question Over 100 people, including 27 girls at a summer camp, died in recent flooding
-
Trump U-turns on weapons to Ukraine
Speed Read Unhappy with Putin, Trump decides the US will go back to arming Ukraine against Russia's attacks
-
Ukraine scrambles as Trump cuts weapons deliveries
Speed Read The halting of weapons shipments was driven by Pentagon policy chief Elbridge Colby, a Ukraine funding skeptic
-
IAEA: Iran could enrich uranium 'within months'
Speed Read The chief United Nations nuclear inspector, Rafael Grossi, says Iran could be enriching uranium again soon
-
One year after mass protests, why are Kenyans taking to the streets again?
today's big question More than 60 protesters died during demonstrations in 2024
-
Iran nukes program set back months, early intel suggests
Speed Read A Pentagon assessment says US bombing of Iranian nuclear sites only set the program back by months, not years. This contradicts President Donald Trump's claim.
-
Trump says Iran and Israel agreed to ceasefire
Speed Read This followed a night of Israeli airstrikes on Tehran and multiple waves of missiles fired by Iran
-
Israel strikes Iran, killing military and nuclear chiefs
Speed Read Israeli officials said the attack was a 'preemptive' strike on Iran's nuclear program
-
Israel deports Thunberg after seizing Gaza aid boat
speed read The Swedish activist was delivering food and medical aid to Palestine, highlighting the growing humanitarian crisis there