Tory leadership election poll and odds: Can Leadsom beat May?

Theresa May has a healthy lead in the Tory leadership battle, according to a new poll – but belief is growing that Andrea Leadsom can defy the odds and win the hearts of the Conservative grassroots members who will decide the outcome.

Among the general public, May's lead seems formidable. Almost half of those surveyed by Sky News – 48 per cent – say she should be the next prime minister, compared with the energy minister's 25 per cent. The rest did not know.

The Home Secretary also remains the bookies' favourite. They have her at 1/4 to win while Leadsom has odds of 7/2.

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Sky's Harry Carr says May is "undoubtedly benefitting" from her higher profile, but added: "Frontrunners do not have a good record in recent Conservative leadership contests."

Leadsom's supporters hope she can repeat Iain Duncan Smith's feat from 2001, when the right-winger was voted leader by party members even though two-thirds of the parliamentary party had backed his more moderate rivals, Ken Clarke and Michael Portillo.

Her argument - that Britain must have a pro-Leave prime minister to maximise the "opportunities" afforded by Brexit - will be music to the ears of large swathes of the Tory grassroots.

It is a message expected to resonate particularly with older Conservatives, who may also be charmed by the charisma of Boris Johnson, who is backing Leadsom. In 2013, party members were estimated to have an average age of 68.

Earlier this week, a poll of 1,214 Tory party members gave Leadsom 38 per cent support - one point ahead of May. With her promise to "banish the pessimists" in the wake of the Brexit vote, Leadsom seems to be riding on quite a momentum.

"She is now well placed to win and replace the absurd gloom in some quarters with a positive, confident and optimistic approach, not just to Europe, but to government all round," says Johnson.

Tory leadership election polls and odds: Gove out of the race

07 July

Justice Secretary Michael Gove has been knocked out of the running to be Conservative leader, leaving Home Secretary Theresa May and energy minister Andrea Leadsom as the final two contenders.

Gove was backed by 46 MPs but it was nowhere near enough to beat Leadsom, who had the support of 84 colleagues. May was way in front, with 199 votes, more than both of her rivals combined. The final choice will be made by party members.

Gove's loss came after a poll showed that the party risked losing support with him at the helm.

Forty-one per cent of 1,000 Tory voters questioned by Survation said they would be less likely to vote for the party with the Justice Secretary in charge, with only nine per cent saying they would be more likely to do so.

The result illustrates why supporters of May - who is also the bookies' favourite, with odds of 1/5 - wanted Gove to be her challenger rather than Leadsom, says the Daily Telegraph.

Leadsom's odds slipped after the first round of voting put her a distant second to May, says Business Insider. This morning, punters were being offered odds of 4/1 against her winning. Gove was a longshot at 14/1.

"Although front-runners have historically struggled to win this contest, the early signs are that political punters expect Theresa May to prove an exception to the rule," a spokesman for bookmaker William Hill told the site.

But the support of MPs will not be enough for May, who can only win if the rank and file back her as leader. Earlier this week, Tory grandee Ken Clarke, in a seemingly unguarded moment, let slip that he thought she was a "bloody difficult woman".

Commentators were quick to point out the epithet would do her no harm with voters, who elected a "bloody difficult woman" – Margaret Thatcher - three times in the 1970s and 1980s.

According to the Survation poll, 46 per cent of previous Tory voters would be more likely to give the party their support if May was leader. Six per cent thought they would be less likely.

The survey was funded by the Constitutional Research Council, a group of business leaders fighting to keep the UK together.

Asked about the chances of Gove keeping Scotland, England, Wales and Northern Ireland united, 59 per cent said they would not have trusted him and 16 per cent said they would.

Some 69 per cent of the respondents did trust May to preserve the union and 28 per cent thought Leadsom could do it.

Tory leadership election polls and odds: All-female final likely

06 July

There are now just three candidates vying for the Tory leadership after Liam Fox was eliminated in the first round of voting and Stephen Crabb withdrew from the race after finishing fourth.

Theresa May won more support from Conservative MPs than all of her rivals combined and with odds of 1/5, remains the bookies' favourite to succeed David Cameron as prime minister.

The stage now looks set for an all-female final round, with Andrea Leadsom odds-on second with 4/1 to win and Michael Gove trailing far behind with 16/1.

But the Home Secretary won't be celebrating just yet, as Leadsom narrowly beat her in a recent poll of Tory members for ConservativeHome.

The energy minister won 38 per cent of the vote, just one point more than May. Gove, who came top of the last poll conducted by the website, secured just 13 per cent.

However, the survey was held before last night's elimination. Crabb has since endorsed May, while many speculate Fox's supporters will throw their weight behind Leadsom.

"The contest that our party respondents want is a two-horse race – a final of Leadsom v May, who between them mop up 75 per cent of the vote," writes ConservativeHome editor Paul Goodman.

He suggests the survey may have unearthed a trend in the battle for No 10. "Namely, that the more members see of Leadsom, the more they will like her, especially since her view on Brexit is closer to the majority of them than those of May," he says.

But Goodman acknowledges that the opposite could also be true, especially after May did so well in the MP ballot. "It could be that party members decide that they want to get the contest over with and stick with the lady they know better."

Tory leadership election: The polls and odds for each candidate

04 July

Polls suggest that Theresa May is the clear front-runner in the increasingly bitter race to become the next leader of the Conservative Party, but the betting market also serves as another key indicator.

"For those who have already lost faith in polling's ability to aiding predictions, there is another way: ask people who are prepared to put their money where their mouth is," says the Daily Telegraph.

Theresa May

The Home Secretary is the obvious favourite to lead the fractured Tory party following Boris Johnson's dramatic exit from the leadership race last week, despite campaigning on the Remain side. May has big-name support in Westminster, with several senior cabinet members backing her campaign, including Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond.

The public appears to agree, with a recent ICM poll revealing that 43 per cent of the general public want her to replace David Cameron. Among Tory party members, that number is even higher, with 59 per cent of voters backing her campaign, according to a Survation poll. The bookmakers also predict that the Home Secretary is most likely to be the next prime minister.

Andrea Leadsom

Despite her relatively short political career, energy minister Andrea Leadsom has emerged as a legitimate contender in the leadership battle. Polls show that the MP, who previously worked in finance and fought for Britain to leave the EU, is tied with rival Michael Gove in second place, commanding eight per cent of overall public support.

"Interestingly, Leadsom comes bottom of the Tory voters poll, despite the fact that she has managed to secure good support from MPs on the Eurosceptic right," says the Telegraph. However, the bookies recently slashed the odds of Leadsom making it all the way, putting her in second place.

Michael Gove

Ongoing recriminations over Gove's decision to withdraw his support for Johnson and stage his own leadership bid "appear to have dented his prospects" of taking on May in the final vote, says Sky News.

The Justice Minister and prominent Brexit campaigner has the support of eight per cent of the overall population and the backing of 15 per cent of Tory voters, putting him in second place. The bookies, meanwhile, currently have Gove in third place behind May and Leadsom.

Stephen Crabb

The Work and Pensions Secretary, who backed the Remain campaign, trails in fourth place in the general poll, with just 5 per cent of the votes. Crabb enjoys more support among Tory members, with 13 per cent of the vote, putting him only two points behind Gove.

"[He's] a softly-spoken unity candidate who's popular in the Tory party, partly because of his rags-to-success tale of being raised by a single mother on a council estate," says the Daily Mirror. But the odds of him becoming the next leader are much longer than those of his three main rivals.

Liam Fox

In his second attempt to secure the top job, the former defence secretary trails behind all the other contenders in the general poll and bookies' odds. However, with more than two decades of political experience, he has more support than Andrea Leadsom among Tory voters. But "a cloud still hangs over his resignation" from the cabinet in 2011, says the Mirror.