Indian summer may follow wet August, say forecasters

After a wet and windy August, September looks set to bring drier, warmer weather – and the Indian summer might even last until November, forecasters say. Last month was one of the coolest Augusts in years, but the UK can expect a mini-heatwave this week despite autumn setting in.

How hot will it be this week?

Weather conditions are due to become more settled this week, with sunny spells as well as cloud, according to the Met Office. Mist and fog patches are due tomorrow morning but, once they have lifted, some light wind and sunny spells are expected to follow. The weekend is likely to bring "patchy rain" in the north but otherwise the weather is expected to be "largely fine". Forecaster Krista Mitchell tells the Metro that temperatures leading up to this weekend could even hit 27C.

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What about the rest of the month?

Overall temperatures look set to be a little above average for September. Next week there is likely to be "a good deal of dry and bright weather", especially in the north, says the Met, while the south might be more unsettled with outbreaks of rain. The unsettled conditions are then due to move northwest, with drier and warmer conditions in the south-east. During the middle and end of the month, most regions can expect to see "periods of fine weather, with some warm sunshine at times", as well as occasional spells of cloudier, more unsettled conditions bringing showers or longer spells of rain. "Daytime temperatures are likely to be above average during fine weather leaving conditions feeling pleasantly warm," says the Met Office. "Nights, however, may well be on the chilly side."

What is an Indian summer?

According to the Met Office Meteorological Glossary first published in 1916, an Indian summer is a "warm, calm spell of weather occurring in autumn, especially in October and November". The warmest October temperature recorded in the UK was 29.9C on 1 October 2011 in Gravesend, Kent. Prestatyn, Denbighshire, holds the record for the warmest November temperature, which was 21.7 °C on 4 November 1946.

Will we have an Indian summer?

The latest long-term predictions from the Met Office suggest above-average temperatures for the next three months. Forecasters say there is even a one-in-three chance that average temperatures will be well-above normal, compared to only a 15 per cent chance of being well-below normal. The latest predictions for the UK also slightly favour below-average rainfall until November. However, this is all based on the Met Office's three-month outlook, which is used by the government for contingency planning rather than to give a precise weather forecast for the general public. Mark Wilson, a meteorologist at the Met Office, tells the Daily Telegraph: "It has been very good start to the month with temperatures returning to more like normal this weekend and next week. It's far too early to say whether there will be an Indian summer, but there have certainly been some promising signs this week."