For over 60 years, Antarctica has been a "veritable Shangri-La," said The Economist, a scientific preserve "untouched by war, unspoiled by humans, where all nationalities are welcome." But there has long been the sense that "as soon as Antarctica's vast resources become economically worth the risk of exploiting, this would change," said former Royal Navy icebreaker captain Tom Sharpe at The Telegraph. "We may be seeing the start of this now." 

'The model is falling apart' 
Since 1961, the continent has been governed by the Antarctic Treaty, which guarantees its use for peaceful purposes and scientific research, said The Economist. "But now, this model is falling apart," as China, Russia and other emerging nations threaten a new scramble for control of the resource-rich continent. 

While the U.S. still has the largest footprint on the continent, China's is growing the fastest, and the country recently completed work on a fifth base. At the annual Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources last month, China and Russia teamed up to veto proposals aimed at conserving marine life and protecting the region from overexploitation. 

China has an eye on future exploitation, said Dr. Lyn Goldsworthy, an Antarctica expert at the University of Tasmania, to The Guardian, while Russia's interest is more likely motivated by a broader strategy to "disrupt the world's rules-based order."

Exploiting loopholes 
Antarctica is believed to hold vast deposits of oil, gas, copper and other valuable minerals, but mining is effectively banned by a treaty amendment until 2048. This has not stopped China and Russia from openly touting their resource ambitions. Countries are also prohibited from "any measures of a military nature," but China appears to be exploiting a loophole that allows countries to deploy military personnel and equipment for research and "any other peaceful purpose." 

This all matters, said Sharpe, because "presence and activity may well translate into 'property rights' in the real world one day." This is why China, India and Russia are expanding their number of bases, while Iran, Saudi Arabia and Turkey are looking to secure a foothold on the continent.

The economic future likely lies in the waves of the ocean. However, the ocean and its accompanying blue economy are actively being threatened by climate change, and problems will only worsen without proper government efforts.

What is the blue economy?
The blue economy is the "sustainable use of ocean resources for economic growth, improved livelihoods and jobs, and ocean ecosystem health," said the World Bank. Included industries are "maritime shipping, fishing and aquaculture, coastal tourism, renewable energy, water desalination, undersea cabling, seabed extractive industries and deep sea mining, marine genetic resources, and biotechnology," said the Grantham Research Institute of the London School of Economics. 

This economy has been growing globally and is contributing approximately $1.5 trillion per year and providing over 30 million jobs, according to the U.N. Environment Program. It's expected to grow to $3 trillion by 2030.

The U.S. also has its own robust blue economy that "contributed a total of $476 billion in economic impact in 2022, making up nearly 2% of the nation's gross domestic product," said the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). It "generated $777 billion in sales and supported 2.4 million jobs in 2022." 

What's the state of the blue economy?
As climate change raises ocean temperatures, action to protect the planet's oceans is becoming more necessary. One of the biggest wins for international ocean governance was the 2023 passing of the U.N. High Seas Treaty, created to establish conversation goals across country lines.

The American government is hoping to collect more data to aid in improving the blue economy. Dubbed the New Blue Economy, the movement was "founded on the improved collection, analysis and dissemination of ocean- and coastal-derived data and information to support economic growth, protect the ocean's health and address societal challenges and inspire their solutions, while protecting ocean health and ensuring social equity," said NOAA. 

Bettering the blue economy will require striking a balance between economic growth and environmental protection. "We are only just starting to recognize the extent to which the blue economy impacts climate change," said the Grantham Research Institute.