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  • The Week Evening Review
    Fears of a market crash, Gaza’s effect on Ukraine, and Japan’s first woman prime minister

     
    TALKING POINTS

    Is a financial market crash around the corner?

    It feels like old times but not in a good way. Financial experts around the world are warning of a 1929-style financial market crash brought on by trade wars, large national debts and overbuilding in the AI sector. 

    “We will have a crash,” financial journalist Andrew Ross Sorkin said to CBS News. World markets are “susceptible to a disorderly adjustment” thanks to economic and political uncertainty, said G20 risk watchdog Andrew Bailey, per Reuters. 

    Bank of England officials warned last week that the AI bubble driving tech stocks may soon burst, said CNBC. And JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon is similarly concerned about a “major market correction,” said Fortune. “Buckle up,” said International Monetary Fund chief Kristalina Georgieva last week. “Uncertainty is the new normal and it’s here to stay.”

    Echoes of 1929
    The 1929 crash was the “definitive stock market collapse,” said David Champion at Harvard Business Review. The 1920s were beset with trade protectionism, anti-immigrant fervor and new technologies that were upending “traditional livelihoods.” 

    The question is whether finance executives have “absorbed the lessons of history by now,” said Champion. After all, the echoes of 1929 in today’s economic landscape seem clear. “Once you start looking for similarities, you see them everywhere.”

    The numbers “just don’t make sense” when it comes to AI, said journalist Derek Thompson in his newsletter. Tech companies are spending $400 billion on artificial intelligence this year, which is more in inflation-adjusted terms than was spent on the entire Apollo moon program over a decade, yet it’s “not clear” that those companies are “prepared to earn back the investment.” 

    American consumers, after all, currently spend only $12 billion a year on AI services. Investors are still pouring money into tech, though. That looks like an “obvious economic bubble.” 

    Scary but rare
    Tech companies may be overinvesting in AI, but that doesn’t mean investors should worry about a “contagion across the broader economy,” said Axios. The boom in tech investment is from “big, stable companies with the balance sheets to support their spending.” 

    Observers could be over-reading the signs of trouble. Bubble bursts are “memorable. They are colorful. They are scary,” said economic analyst William Goetzmann at The Wall Street Journal. But bubbles are also “much rarer than their presence in the public imagination.”

     
     
    QUOTE OF THE DAY

    ‘Like the USA right now, it will be the golden age of Israel and the golden age of the Middle East.’

    Trump in his speech to the Knesset in Israel yesterday regarding the Gaza peace deal, calling it the “moment that everything began to change and change very much for the better” 

     
     
    TODAY'S BIG QUESTION

    Can Gaza momentum help end the war in Ukraine?

    “If a war can be stopped in one region, then surely other wars can be stopped as well, including the Russian war.” That was Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s assessment following news of the success of President Donald Trump’s 20-point peace plan for Gaza. The two leaders spoke by phone on Saturday, an indication of a “warming of relations” between them, said The Guardian. The conversation centered on the proposals for the U.S. to provide Ukraine with Tomahawk cruise missiles, which have a 1,500-mile range and could pose a significant threat to Moscow. 

    What did the commentators say? 
    Vladimir Putin could be an “unlikely casualty” of the conflict in Gaza between Israel and Hamas, said Bethany Elliott at UnHerd. Trump’s main takeaway from the Middle East negotiations has been that “pressure and arm-twisting succeed while friendly overtures do not garner results” — a conclusion that undermines his red-carpet approach with his Russian counterpart. With “next year’s Nobel Peace Prize to win,” the prospect of another conflict to resolve could see Trump adopt a strategy of “pushing” rather than “luring” Putin to the negotiating table. 

    But there’s no guarantee that Trump’s attention will now turn to Eastern Europe, said Ray Furlong at RFE/RL. Achieving resolutions to each of the conflicts are two very different undertakings. Israel is “so diplomatically isolated that it depends on U.S. backing,” and since it’s the “largest recipient of U.S. aid in the world,” American leverage is substantial. Russia, on the other hand, benefits from economic backing from China and military endorsement from North Korea. 

    Obtaining Tomahawk missiles could prove decisive, as Ukraine’s strategy involves an “increasing number of long-range strikes into Russian territory that have expanded and remade the battlefield,” said Atlantic Council President Frederick Kempe. This war has become more of a “technology race than a battle for territory.” 

    What next? 
    The conflict in Ukraine may be the “most difficult international conflict in the world to resolve,” said Furlong at RFE/RL. Senator Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) has also called for “massive secondary tariffs to cripple Russia’s revenues from fossil fuels” to further turn the screw on Russia. 

    The introduction of Tomahawks into the conversation is a “step in the right direction,” said Elliott. But if “recent success has taught” Trump anything, it’s that he “will need to apply even more pressure” on Putin and Russia.

     
     

    Statistic of the day

    245,000: The number of pounds of pasta manufactured by Nate’s Fine Foods that have been recalled in California due to a listeria outbreak. Nine specific products were recalled, including packaged food sold at Trader Joe’s, Kroger and Albertson’s.

     
     
    IN THE SPOTLIGHT

    Japan’s Iron Lady to be its first woman prime minister

    Japan is poised to select a new leader who will likely shatter the country’s longstanding glass ceiling. Sanae Takaichi is all but guaranteed to be the next prime minister, making her the first woman to hold the office. Takaichi, recently elected as head of Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), is a conservative nationalist. But while she might make history, she will also face challenges as she takes control of the Japanese government.

    From heavy metal to politics
    Takaichi, 64, was born in Japan’s Nara prefecture. As a child, she was an “avid heavy metal drummer” from a family in which politics was “far removed,” said the BBC. She graduated from Japan’s Kobe University, briefly becoming a television host before moving to the U.S. in the 1980s during the “height of U.S.-Japan trade friction.” 

    During her time in the U.S., Takaichi worked “briefly in Washington for Patricia Schroeder, a feminist congresswoman,” said The Economist. She eventually won a seat in Japan’s legislature in 1993 and “found common cause with Shinzo Abe, the late prime minister, on the LDP’s right wing.” Takaichi has since become a fixture in Japanese politics.

    Next prime minister
    Takaichi is “likely to be Japan’s leader because the LDP, even without a majority in either house of parliament following consecutive election losses, is still by far the largest in the lower house,” which selects the prime minister, said The Associated Press. But while the LDP has long controlled most facets of the Japanese government, she “will need to address rising prices to restore support for the struggling party.” 

    As someone known for her staunch conservatism, Takaichi has often been compared to former British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher and is known as Japan’s Iron Lady. But the LDP has been losing its grasp as younger voters leave its ranks, and the party is “essentially betting on a swing back to the right to attract the younger voters who have flocked to smaller populist outfits,” said Fortune. 

    This may controversially include forming a coalition with Sanseito, a far-right populist party influenced by the MAGA movement, which recently won 14 new seats. But this could “backfire if the party is seen simply reverting to the easy money and hawkish diplomacy” of prior years, said Fortune.

     
     

    Good day 🌊

    … for seafood lovers. Virginia's population of bay scallops is seeing an unprecedented boom, according to the Virginia Institute of Marine Science. The species was once locally extinct due to habitat loss, but researchers now estimate the scallop population to double in less than two years.

     
     

    Bad day 🎙️

    … for Canadian rappers. A federal judge has dismissed Drake’s lawsuit against Universal Music Group. He had accused the label, which is actually his own record company, of defamation when it released the American rapper Kendrick Lamar's infamous diss track about Drake, "Not Like Us."

     
     
    Picture of the day

    New pastures

    A shepherd leads his flock down Poland’s Tatra Mountains during the autumn redyk, a centuries-old highlander festival marking the end of the sheep grazing season.
    Dominika Zarzycka / SOPA Images / Shutterstock

     
     
    Puzzles

    Daily crossword

    Test your general knowledge with The Week's daily crossword, part of our puzzles section, which also includes sudoku and codewords

    Play here

     
     
    The Week recommends

    New movies feature prisons, Frankenstein and crazy moms

    Don’t expect many giggles from movies right now. It’s spooky season, after all. This month’s new releases include frights like inhumane prison conditions, a zombified man-monster and motherhood.

    ‘The Alabama Solution’
    This six-year investigative documentary about the varied injustices of the state’s prison system uses interviews with inmates and video footage taken by prisoners on contraband phones. The public is “already conditioned not to believe a person who’s incarcerated,” says Robert Earl “Kinetik Justice” Council, one of the inmates featured in the doc. This movie aims to change that. (on HBO Max now)

    ‘If I Had Legs I’d Kick You’
    Mothers rarely have it easy, and Mary Bronstein’s “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You” is about that brutal truth. Linda, played “magnificently and unflinchingly by Rose Byrne,” is a woman struggling to “juggle the mysterious illness of her daughter and the sudden collapse of her literal and metaphorical ceiling, leaving her with no pillars to support her,” said Cortlyn Kelly at Roger Ebert. Byrne is already generating Oscar buzz for this “performance of a lifetime,” said Richard Lawson at Vanity Fair. (in theaters now)

    ‘Frankenstein’
    One of the world’s foremost horror filmmakers, three-time Oscar winner Guillermo del Toro, has been teasing his adaptation of Mary Shelley’s literary masterpiece “Frankenstein” for a long time. The Netflix film stars Oscar Isaac as the famed scientist Victor Frankenstein, whose penchant for playing God results in the creation of Frankenstein the monster, portrayed here by Jacob Elordi (pictured above). (in theaters Oct. 17, on Netflix Nov. 7)

    Read more

     
     

    Poll watch

    New York City mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani (D) is leading with 46% of likely voters, according to a Quinnipiac survey. Former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo trails at 33%, and Republican activist Curtis Sliwa is at 15%. Cuomo gained support after Mayor Eric Adams dropped out, but it may not be enough to close Mamdani’s double-digit lead.

     
     
    INSTANT OPINION

    Today's best commentary

    ‘America is sliding toward illiteracy’
    Idrees Kahloon at The Atlantic
    The “past decade may rank as one of the worst in the history of American education,” says Idrees Kahloon. The “decline began well before the pandemic, so Covid-era disruptions alone cannot explain it.” While smartphones and social media “probably account for some of the drop,” there’s “another explanation: a pervasive refusal to hold children to high standards.” In short, schools have “demanded less and less from students, who have responded, predictably, by giving less and less.”

    ‘LA’s fires report exposes America’s broken alert system’
    Kelly McKinney at the Los Angeles Times
    The recently released “after-action report on the January wildfires” in Los Angeles “confirms what has become increasingly clear in recent years, as we witness failure after failure: We don’t know how to execute emergency alerting in this country,” says Kelly McKinney. “For all our technology, for all our wealth, Americans face a dangerous future with hundreds of cumbersome, inconsistent and dangerously slow state and local systems duct-taped together. Unless we face this head-on, more will needlessly die.”

    ‘Is this how we should raise children?’
    Louise Perry at The New York Times
    Modern people “like to imagine ourselves as autonomous individuals, but in the natural human life cycle, we spend a large proportion of our lives dependent on others,” says Louise Perry. “We often feel a longing for something like a village,” especially “college-educated, relatively affluent Americans who moved away from their extended families in pursuit of career opportunities.” Yet even though “forming communities” would “solve many economic and practical problems,” particularly in raising children, few people actually “make the attempt.”

     
     
    WORD OF THE DAY

    tradson

    A man who quits his job and moves back to his parents’ home, also called a stay-at-home son, or hubson. The term is inspired by the “tradwife” trend and usually applies to Millennials and Gen Zers.

     
     

    Evening Review was written and edited by Will Barker, Nadia Croes, Scott Hocker, Anya Jaremko-Greenwold, Justin Klawans, Joel Mathis, Summer Meza and Anahi Valenzuela, with illustrations by Stephen Kelly and Julia Wytrazek.

    Image credits, from top: Illustration by Julia Wytrazek / Getty Images; Illustration by Stephen Kelly / Getty Images / Shutterstock; Yuichi Yamazaki / Pool / AFP / Anadolu / Getty Images; Double Dare You / Demilo Films / Bluegrass Films / Alamy
     

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      Trump urges peace – ‘even with Iran’

    • Evening Review

      Can Gaza momentum help end Ukraine war?

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      Trump heads to Middle East to oversee hostage release

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