The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index, considered the benchmark for confidence in economic conditions, fell to 50.3 this month, marking a nearly three-and-a-half-year low. This 29.9% drop from last November could signal that Americans are wary of spending their money.

What did the commentators say?
With the federal government shutdown “dragging on for over a month, consumers are now expressing worries about potential negative consequences for the economy,” Joanne Hsu, the director of surveys of consumers at the University of Michigan, said in a statement. The consumer sentiment data “confirmed what economists describe as a K-shaped economy, where the higher-income households are doing well and lower-income consumers are struggling,” said Reuters. 

There are concerns about the “labor market,” as the University of Michigan and New York Federal Reserve show that “respondents expected the jobless rate to increase in the coming year and anticipated a tough time finding work if they were to become unemployed,” said Reuters. The Federal Reserve’s probability that unemployment will be higher in a year rose 1.4 points to 42.5%, the third monthly increase in a row.

But just because consumer sentiment is down doesn’t necessarily mean the economy is in a slump, experts say. Deteriorating sentiment “would suggest weak consumer spending, the economy’s main engine, but the correlation between the two is weak,” said Reuters.

What next?
While the Senate has just passed a bill to end the government shutdown, the bill has yet to be rubber-stamped by the House. But amid the shutdown crisis and plummeting confidence, some analysts still feel it’s too early to ring the warning bells. 

While “sentiment does matter, over the past few years, we have seen consumers spend irrespective of how they are feeling about things,” Mark Mathews, the chief economist at the National Retail Federation, said to Barron’s. Most people’s balance sheets are in a “good place” for now. And a “record-breaking bull run and soaring housing prices have also contributed to the resilience in spending, especially for upper-income consumers.” 

The west coast of the U.S. will be significantly more at risk from maritime earthquakes and tsunamis after this month. Nine seismic monitoring stations along the Alaskan coast are set to go dark in the coming days in a shutdown that will hamper scientists’ ability to track and measure potential natural disasters in the depths of the Pacific. The closures, which follow hundreds of thousands of dollars in National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration funding cuts, not only leave the Alaskan coast in the dark but also threaten the American mainland.

Zapped funding
For decades, the Alaska Earthquake Center has collected and shared seismological data and recordings from monitoring stations to NOAA’s National Tsunami Center, which “sends out a warning message within minutes” if conditions are met, said Alaska Public Media. But that’s all “about to change.” 

The stations, whose data helped researchers calculate the “magnitude and shape” of tremors along the Alaskan Subduction Zone, relied on federal funding, which lapsed this year after the Trump administration “declined to renew,” said NBC News. The closures mean that not only might Alaskan coastal communities receive “delayed notice of an impending tsunami,” but other, more distant locations might receive a “less precise forecast” as well. The sites were maintained through a NOAA grant of $300,000 each year, which the Alaska Earthquake Center requested “through 2028, but it was denied.”

None of the sites slated for closure have ”substitute stations surrounding the ones that will go offline,” said KTUU. People should be “concerned” about anything that “degrades our earthquake and tsunami capabilities,” said Alaska Earthquake Center Director Mike West to the station.

‘California’s biggest tsunami threat’
The loss of real-time oceanographic data could ultimately have dire consequences for the entire Pacific coast. While the cuts “don’t mean that a tsunami would go undetected” altogether, the stations being closed are among the only ones across the seismically active Aleutian Islands, “sometimes for hundreds of kilometers around,” said the San Francisco Chronicle.

Seismic measurement and warning systems are “critical for providing advanced tsunami warning along California’s coast,” said state geologist Jeremy Lancaster to the Chronicle. And not just California, either. The nation’s “tsunami program began in 1946,” said West to Alaska Public Media, after an “earthquake here in Alaska killed 150 people in Hawaii.”

Revelers celebrate the start of carnival season in Cologne, Germany. The weeklong nationwide party, known as the fifth season, traditionally begins 11 minutes past 11 on Nov. 11.
Ina Fassbender / AFP / Getty Images

Gone are the days of simple advent calendars holding tiny pieces of chocolate. Now, you can find calendars centered around almost any interest or taste, with fun surprises and treats behind every door.

Bonne Maman 
Your toast game is about to level up. Bonne Maman’s “adorable” advent calendar is filled with 24 “delicious” limited-edition jam flavors, like caramel with vanilla and wild blueberry with maple syrup, said CNN. Each jar comes in its own individual box that can be reused as holiday decor or gift packaging. ($55, Bonne Maman)

Liberty Beauty 
Liberty is an “iconic” London retailer, and its beauty advent calendar features “cult buys” and products from “niche names,” said Harper’s Bazaar. The keepsake box, shaped like the Liberty store and covered in an original illustration by Clym Evernden, contains 30 products, including 20 that are full size. Sisley, La Mer, Jones Road and Augustinus Bader are among the brands represented. It’s the ultimate calendar for luxe beauty lovers. ($365, Liberty)

Vahdam Tea 
Vahdam’s advent calendar features an exquisite collection of 24 loose-leaf tea blends from India and South Africa, including “familiar flavors” like Earl Grey and English breakfast, plus “spiced chais and herbal standouts,” said The Wall Street Journal. Each canister comes with enough tea to make around five cups, so the “relaxing treats go beyond the 24 days.” ($90, Williams Sonoma)