Mexican security forces struck a major blow against international drug traffickers when they killed Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes over the weekend. Cervantes, known as El Mencho, was the leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel and one of Mexico’s most ruthless drug kingpins. But while his death leaves a power gap in the cartel, there could be even greater effects domestically and internationally.
What did the commentators say? The most immediate impact of Cervantes’ death was a surge in violence, as “almost immediately, Guadalajara, Mexico’s third-largest city and the capital of Jalisco state, was plunged into chaos as the cartel retaliated,” said The New York Times. Despite this, some across Mexico celebrated Cervantes’ death, as he had “built the Jalisco cartel into one of Mexico’s most feared criminal organizations,” said the Times. Cervantes’ demise is the “most important blow that has been dealt to drug trafficking in Mexico since drug trafficking existed in Mexico,” said Eduardo Guerrero, a former Mexican security official, to the Times.
There’s also likely to be an effect on Mexico’s drug trade, as the Jalisco cartel is one of Mexico’s most powerful trafficking organizations, with “significant cocaine, heroin and methamphetamine distribution networks,” said Al Jazeera. And there’s additional evidence that the cartel played a “major role” in recent fentanyl trafficking into the U.S.
What next? Given that the Jalisco cartel “earns billions from the production of fentanyl and methamphetamine,” production appears primed to continue, said The Guardian. The long-term effect in Mexico will largely depend on “what succession plans Jalisco New Generation had in the event of Oseguera Cervantes’ capture or killing,” said The Independent. Beyond the current carnage, there’s usually “longer-term violence associated with any succession.” Typically, operations where a cartel boss is removed “lead to more violence and fragmentation of criminal groups.”
There could also be ongoing political ramifications, as Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum’s move to target Cervantes “represented a hard policy turn following a year of intense pressure” from President Donald Trump, said CNN. But a “permanent cartel crackdown would create new dilemmas and political risks.” And while Sheinbaum has said she’s focused on restoring peace and coordinating with security forces, historical killings of drug lords “don’t stop drugs flowing to Americans or temper cartels.” |