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  • The Week Evening Review
    Ramifications in Mexico, states tackle prediction markets, and China’s humanoid robots

     
    Today’s Big Question

    What’s next for Mexico after a powerful cartel leader’s death?

    Mexican security forces struck a major blow against international drug traffickers when they killed Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes over the weekend. Cervantes, known as El Mencho, was the leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel and one of Mexico’s most ruthless drug kingpins. But while his death leaves a power gap in the cartel, there could be even greater effects domestically and internationally.

    What did the commentators say?
    The most immediate impact of Cervantes’ death was a surge in violence, as “almost immediately, Guadalajara, Mexico’s third-largest city and the capital of Jalisco state, was plunged into chaos as the cartel retaliated,” said The New York Times. Despite this, some across Mexico celebrated Cervantes’ death, as he had “built the Jalisco cartel into one of Mexico’s most feared criminal organizations,” said the Times. Cervantes’ demise is the “most important blow that has been dealt to drug trafficking in Mexico since drug trafficking existed in Mexico,” said Eduardo Guerrero, a former Mexican security official, to the Times.

    There’s also likely to be an effect on Mexico’s drug trade, as the Jalisco cartel is one of Mexico’s most powerful trafficking organizations, with “significant cocaine, heroin and methamphetamine distribution networks,” said Al Jazeera. And there’s additional evidence that the cartel played a “major role” in recent fentanyl trafficking into the U.S. 

    What next?
    Given that the Jalisco cartel “earns billions from the production of fentanyl and methamphetamine,” production appears primed to continue, said The Guardian. The long-term effect in Mexico will largely depend on “what succession plans Jalisco New Generation had in the event of Oseguera Cervantes’ capture or killing,” said The Independent. Beyond the current carnage, there’s usually “longer-term violence associated with any succession.” Typically, operations where a cartel boss is removed “lead to more violence and fragmentation of criminal groups.”

    There could also be ongoing political ramifications, as Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum’s move to target Cervantes “represented a hard policy turn following a year of intense pressure” from President Donald Trump, said CNN. But a “permanent cartel crackdown would create new dilemmas and political risks.” And while Sheinbaum has said she’s focused on restoring peace and coordinating with security forces, historical killings of drug lords “don’t stop drugs flowing to Americans or temper cartels.”

     
     
    QUOTE OF THE DAY

    ‘ICE is teaching cadets to violate the Constitution, and they were attempting to cloak it in secrecy by demanding that I lie about it.’

    Ryan Schwank, a former ICE assistant chief counsel, at a congressional hearing on how the agency drastically dismantled the training program for new agents. He called the academy “deficient, defective and broken” and said ICE is “lying to Congress and the American people.”

     
     
    In the SPotlight

    States fight back against online prediction markets

    While it’s legal to bet using online prediction markets in the U.S., pushback has begun against a practice that many states say is harmful to their residents. Officials have initiated numerous lawsuits against major betting platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, but they may face an uphill battle as these prediction markets continue to grow more popular.

    Lawsuits nationwide
    Many states have alleged that the online prediction community is essentially a front for gambling. At least 20 federal lawsuits have been filed nationwide, “disputing whether companies such as Kalshi and Polymarket should be treated as federally regulated financial exchanges, as they maintain,” said The Guardian. But the lawsuits claim these companies are “gambling operations that should be regulated like state-licensed sportsbooks.” 

    These lawsuits state that the industry is harmful because these companies “let users trade on the outcome of virtually anything, ranging from sports and elections to award shows, speeches and even what someone might wear,” said The Guardian. Users essentially bet against each other while platforms collect transaction fees, differing from casinos where players bet “against an established ‘house.’” 

    One of the most notable lawsuits is in Nevada, where the state’s effort to block Kalshi is “moving through multiple courts,” said NBC News. Officials in Nevada allege that Kalshi, “through its prediction market contracts, is offering people a way to illegally bet on sports,” though Kalshi maintains it’s just a financial exchange platform. 

    ‘Full-blown war’
    As the lawsuits continue, there are also political aspects to the rift between lawmakers and prediction markets. This political fight has “escalated into a full-blown war, and battle lines aren’t being neatly drawn along party lines,” said Wired. Liberals and conservatives have often found themselves arguing for the same cause. One side argues that the platforms are “breaking the law by operating as shadow casinos.“ The other “insists they are just giving people access to legitimate financial markets already subject to adequate government oversight.”

    These prediction markets have also become “entrenched in mainstream culture, a transformation that has brought vast sums of money into play,” said Wired. But in court, challenges to sports prediction markets have “won early victories,” said The New York Times. And this could be “devastating” for prediction markets as a whole.

     
     

    Statistic of the day

    60,000: The estimated number of people killed in a “wave of intense violence” during the first three days of the Rapid Support Forces’ attempt to capture El Fasher, Sudan, in October, according to a report published by the U.N. Human Rights Office. The RFS attack committed “war crimes and possible crimes against humanity.”

     
     
    the explainer

    China and the rise of humanoid robots

    Gone are the days when China’s humanoid robots were something of a joke. In a “dazzling” performance, humanoid robots took center stage in China’s Spring Festival Gala, “showcasing how far the country’s robotics industry has come in a few short years,” said Futurism. With backflips and sophisticated choreography, including sparring with children using nunchucks, the performance was in stark contrast to the “awkwardly shuffling” humanoids that preceded them. 

    Are humanoids a realistic goal? 
    Machines with human likeness have appeared in “mythology and history for millennia,” yet the idea that they could become “practical consumer products” is entirely realistic, said social robotics researcher Eduardo B. Sandoval at The Conversation. Progress in other fields has helped the sector to develop rapidly. There have been major improvements to battery capacity, motors and sensors thanks to the electric vehicle industry, and the AI systems that control such hardware have also become “far more capable.” 

    How invested is China? 
    China’s “bustling” robotics industry is “home to the world’s deepest supply chain” for humanoids, said The Economist. According to research firm Omdia, more than 14,500 “automatons” were delivered globally last year — a near 400% rise from the year before. China’s two leading firms, Agibot and Unitree, “accounted for around three-quarters of the total.” 

    The Chinese state will “probably remain the biggest source of demand for some time.” Though subsidies provide important financial platforms for expansion, the government’s “most important role by far is as a buyer”; it was the largest purchaser of humanoids last year. 

    Should we be worried? 
    In the not-too-distant future, there’s “likely” to be room for robots “in the shape of humans and animals” for “military and security organizations,” Hans Liwang, of the Swedish Defence University, said to Euronews. China’s robotics market rush is worrying some in the West who believe that humanoids will “eventually become one of the largest industries in the world,” said The Economist. 

    But China’s latest displays of expertise should be viewed with caution and at the very least “through a lens of state propaganda,” said The Guardian. The humanoids were programmed to enact a fixed routine “hundreds or thousands of times,” requiring very little “environmental perception,” an essential requirement for factory-grade development.

     
     

    Good day 🤧

    … for fighting respiratory illness. A single nasal spray could protect against all coughs, colds and flus, as well as bacterial lung infections, according to a study published in the journal Science. Tests of the “universal vaccine” on mice suggest it can “fend off” respiratory viruses “in warp speed time,” said lead researcher Bali Pulendran at Stanford University.

     
     

    Bad day 🎗️

    … for fighting cancer. Six types of cancer are rising faster in younger adults than in older ones in at least five countries, according to a study published in the journal Military Medical Research. The examination of cases between 2000 and 2017 found cervical, colorectal, kidney, multiple myeloma, pancreatic and prostate cancer increasing more in adults under 50.

     
     
    Picture of the day

    Solemn remembrance

    A person walks past the graves of thousands of fallen Ukrainian military personnel at 18 Cemetery in Kharkiv, Ukraine. Today marks four years since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. More than 55,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
    Chris McGrath / Getty Images

     
     
    Puzzles

    Daily sudoku

    Challenge yourself with The Week’s daily sudoku, part of our puzzles section, which also includes guess the number

    Play here

     
     
    The Week recommends

    The best war movies of the 21st century

    War remains an endemic human tragedy, and film has long been one of the best ways to demonstrate its horrors to those who have never experienced it. With great power tensions rising in the real world, there has never been a better time for audiences to watch these movies, if only to remind themselves of why peace is preferable to conflict.

    ‘Black Hawk Down’ (2001)
    With the U.S.-led 1992-1993 intervention in Somalia struggling to relieve the country’s famine due to state failure, Major General Garrison, played by Sam Shepard (pictured above), greenlights an operation to capture the warlord Mohamed Aidid in Mogadishu using U.S. Army Rangers dropped from helicopters. Director Ridley Scott’s film uses “immense technical skill and spectacular photography” to produce a gripping war film, said Philip Strick at Sight and Sound. (Prime Video)

    ‘The Hurt Locker’ (2008)
    So far, the definitive statement about America’s decade-long misadventure in Iraq is director Kathryn Bigelow’s deservedly lauded “The Hurt Locker.” A film that “doesn’t engage the politics of the war in Iraq per se,” it is a “totally immersive off-the-charts high-anxiety experience from beginning to end,” said Amy Taubin at Film Comment. (Netflix)

    ‘Waltz with Bashir’ (2008)
    Based on his experiences as a soldier during Israel’s 1982 invasion of Lebanon, director Ari Folman voices his character as he interviews fellow veterans of the conflict. This animated film is a work of “astonishing aesthetic integrity and searing moral power,” said A.O. Scott at The New York Times. (Prime Video)

    Read more

     
     

    Poll watch

    Melania Trump is the second least popular first lady in recent history, according to a YouGov survey of 2,255 citizens. Among the 11 most recent first ladies ranked on a scale from “outstanding” to “poor,” she has a net approval rating of -16%. The only first lady to rank lower is Hillary Clinton at -17%.

     
     
    INSTANT OPINION

    Today’s best commentary

    ‘The State of the Union is delusion’
    Jim Newell at Slate
    The “fleeting preservation of delusion is now the only practical purpose” of the State of the Union, says Jim Newell. Gone are the days when the American people “didn’t get regular updates from the president and when a single speech could cut through the noise to introduce the next year’s agenda.” The speech is a moment when the president can “project the exact aura he wants on a grand stage. For Biden, that was vigor. For Trump’s first, that was gravitas.”

    ‘The quiet majority is exhausted. It’s time to act.’
    Patrick Payton at The Dallas Morning News
    Moderate Americans are “fed up with and exhausted by the extremes sucking the life out of our collective morale and crushing the long-held belief that we are able to continue to be one nation,” says Patrick Payton. It “doesn’t have to be this way if the majority middle will awaken from their exhausted slumber and demand more from those we elect and hopefully hold them accountable.” They “must not be allowed to continue to hold the microphone of national debate.”

    ‘I don’t trust online reviews. You probably shouldn’t either.’
    Blake Fontenay at USA Today
    Being “bombarded with online surveys is one of the most tiresome aspects of modern life,” says Blake Fontenay. After spending “half an hour on the phone with some faceless customer service rep at a call center, no one wants to spend another 5 to 10 minutes recapping the conversation.” In a society “already swimming in data, there’s such a thing as too much feedback.” Not every routine online transaction is a “magical experience worthy of a five-star rating.”

     
     
    WORD OF THE DAY

    dimethyltryptamine

    A psychedelic drug commonly known as DMT and the active ingredient of the ayahuasca brew used in shamanic rituals. When combined with psychotherapy, a single dose of DMT can lead to rapid and lasting improvement in people with major depressive disorder, according to a clinical trial published in Nature Medicine. 

     
     

    Evening Review was written and edited by Will Barker, Theara Coleman, Nadia Croes, David Faris, Scott Hocker, Justin Klawans and Summer Meza, with illustrations by Stephen Kelly and Julia Wytrazek.

    Image credits, from top: Illustration by Julia Wytrazek / Getty Images; Bridget Bennett / Bloomberg / Getty Images; VCG / Getty Images; Hulton Archive / Getty Images
     

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