The rise of the spymaster: a ‘tectonic shift’ in Ukraine’s politics

“The man without a smile”, they call him, said Meduza (Riga). Known for his cold stare and for surviving ten assassination attempts, Kyrylo Budanov, until this month the head of Ukraine’s military intelligence service (HUR), is renowned for daring operations against the Russians – the bomb attacks on the bridge to Russia-occupied Crimea, for example. Just after Christmas, he even tricked Russian spooks into handing over half a million dollars in bounty money for the killing of the general of a pro-Ukraine Russian militia, a death the HUR had faked.

Major shake-up

He’s a popular figure in Ukraine; some polls show he’s more trusted than President Zelenskyy. Last week, relieving him of his spymaster duties, Zelenskyy made him chief of staff. That decision marks a “tectonic shift” in Ukrainian politics, said Jamie Dettmer on Politico (Brussels). The man he has replaced, in a major shake-up of top officials, is Andriy Yermak, who was such a close confidant of Zelenskyy’s that he was “virtually a co-president”. But he was also mired in an energy corruption scandal, and for too long the “stubborn” Zelenskyy had resisted calls for his sacking.

It was a bold, albeit belated, move on the president’s part, said Pavlo Vuets in Glavkom (Kyiv). Yermak, who had no love for Budanov and tried to get him sacked as spy chief, had “consciously absorbed all the negativity that fell on the presidential mantle”. Budanov has no such inclinations: indeed, he no doubt hopes to replace Zelenskyy should an election be held in the near future.

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‘Renewed lustre’

It’s actually a smart move on the president’s part, said Tadeusz Iwanski on Polskie Radio (Warsaw). Appointing the highly popular Budanov to lead his team will bring “renewed lustre” to Zelenskyy, whose approval ratings have been sliding. Budanov’s rise bodes well for Ukraine’s prospects in peace talks, too. He’s well liked by the Americans, who view him as a credible negotiator, untainted by corruption and more willing than Yermak to make the needed compromises as Ukraine struggles with troop shortages, renewed attacks on its energy infrastructure, and pressure from Donald Trump to agree terms with the Kremlin.

Some senior Ukrainians see Budanov’s elevation as the start of “Operation Successor”, said Roman Romaniuk in Ukrainska Pravda (Kyiv). Yet it’s hasty to assume that Zelenskyy is heading for the exit. For a start, he has cut his protégé off from his base in HUR by choosing a Yermak ally as his successor as spy chief. Yes, Zelenskyy is happy to let Budanov become a serious political player, but only if “he plays strictly within Zelenskyy’s own team”.