Can Paul Ryan win Wisconsin for Mitt Romney?
The conventional wisdom is that vice presidential candidates don't often sway elections, but could Ryan break the mold by winning over his home state?
There's a general consensus that Mitt Romney's choice of House budget wonk Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) as his running mate has shifted the trajectory and meaning of the 2012 race, making it more an election of ideas and differing visions of government than a simple referendum on President Obama. But ideas, no matter how bold, don't translate directly into electoral votes, the building blocks of presidential victories. Ryan's home state, Wisconsin, went heavily for Obama in 2008, though polls show it's a tighter contest this year. Can Ryan swing the Badger State and its 10 electoral votes over to the GOP side, helping Romney get to the magic 270?
Romney may have struck Badger gold: "Could Ryan really move Wisconsin into the toss-up column?" says Nate Cohn at The New Republic. "The short answer is: Yes." As Gov. Scott Walker's (R) recent recall victory shows, Wisconsinites are "clearly willing to support controversial conservative reformist politicians" like Ryan. And if Romney can pull neck-and-neck with Obama, Ryan could paint red not only his home state but also temperamentally similar Iowa. That's probably enough to send Romney to the White House.
"Ryan could move Wisconsin into the toss-up column"
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
Wisconsin is still Obama's to lose: Ryan does shift Wisconsin toward being a genuine tossup state, but he only boosts Romney's odds of winning the state to about 20 percent, from 12 percent, says Micah Cohen at The New York Times. Obama is still pretty popular in Wisconsin, and while Ryan will give Romney a jolt in his congressional district and in Milwaukee's conservative suburbs, it's unlikely his "Wisconsin roots will be enough to win over many Democrats in America's Dairyland."
"Could Ryan tip Wisconsin toward Romney?"
Ryan probably won't matter much either way: The real question "is not whether Ryan can help Romney" win Wisconsin, says Chris Cillizza at The Washington Post, "but rather whether Romney can get or keep the race close enough to allow Ryan to make a difference." And winning Wisconsin won't matter much if Romney loses Florida, where "Ryan's plan to overhaul Medicare isn't likely to be all that popular among the state's significant senior population." In all likelihood, though, Ryan will only be "a game-changer from a policy perspective," not in terms of reshaping the electoral map.
"How Paul Ryan impacts the electoral map. Or doesn't."
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Read more political coverage at The Week's 2012 Election Center.
Create an account with the same email registered to your subscription to unlock access.
-
'Colleges warn of punishment for disruptions'
Today's Newspapers A roundup of the headlines from the US front pages
By The Week Staff Published
-
Peter Murrell: Sturgeon's husband charged over SNP 'embezzlement' claims
Speed Read SNP expresses 'shock' as former chief executive rearrested in long-running investigation into claims of mishandled campaign funds
By Arion McNicoll, The Week UK Published
-
The murky role of military contractors in war
The Explainer A civil case against US company has revived debate over the increasing use of private security firms in military operations
By Richard Windsor, The Week UK Published
-
Arizona court reinstates 1864 abortion ban
Speed Read The law makes all abortions illegal in the state except to save the mother's life
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published
-
Trump, billions richer, is selling Bibles
Speed Read The former president is hawking a $60 "God Bless the USA Bible"
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
The debate about Biden's age and mental fitness
In Depth Some critics argue Biden is too old to run again. Does the argument have merit?
By Grayson Quay Published
-
How would a second Trump presidency affect Britain?
Today's Big Question Re-election of Republican frontrunner could threaten UK security, warns former head of secret service
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
'Rwanda plan is less a deterrent and more a bluff'
Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
By The Week UK Published
-
Henry Kissinger dies aged 100: a complicated legacy?
Talking Point Top US diplomat and Nobel Peace Prize winner remembered as both foreign policy genius and war criminal
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Last updated
-
Trump’s rhetoric: a shift to 'straight-up Nazi talk'
Why everyone's talking about Would-be president's sinister language is backed by an incendiary policy agenda, say commentators
By The Week UK Published
-
More covfefe: is the world ready for a second Donald Trump presidency?
Today's Big Question Republican's re-election would be a 'nightmare' scenario for Europe, Ukraine and the West
By Sorcha Bradley, The Week UK Published