The GOP's 'amazing' Iowa caucus tie: Winners and losers
Iowans essentially gave first-class tickets out of Iowa to Mitt Romney and a surging Rick Santorum, with Ron Paul tagging along in coach
After eight months of fierce politicking, Iowa delivered what amounts to a split decision at its first-in-the-nation presidential caucuses on Tuesday. Longtime frontrunner Mitt Romney and surging social conservative Rick Santorum ended the night in a virtual tie, each garnering roughly 24.5 percent and Romney squeaking out an 8-vote win. Ron Paul came in third, with about 21.5 percent of the vote, followed by Newt Gingrich (13.3 percent), Rick Perry (10.3 percent), and Michele Bachmann (5 percent). Who wins (and loses) in this "amazing" photo finish? Here, a brief guide:
WINNERS
Rick Santorum
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
The socially conservative former senator is clearly "the night's big winner," says Jim Geraghty at National Review. There are still questions about whether Santorum can turn his Iowa victory into a winning national campaign, but "I suspect that the considerable number of anybody-but-Romney Republicans will eagerly step forward and help assemble that infrastructure." In a Romney-Santorum matchup, Romney will still have his huge war chest, but Santorum "will have access to funds from the grassroots."
Mitt Romney
Romney would have been fine with a third-place finish behind Santorum and Paul, so a first-place finish in conservative Iowa is "sweet for him no matter how narrow the margin of victory," says Jonathan Tobin at Commentary. The biggest threat to him winning the GOP nomination "was for one of his conservative rivals to break out from the pack." But Gingrich and Perry finished in a distant fourth and fifth. And since Santorum failed to trounce Mitt, Iowa "constitutes a strategic victory."
Ron Paul
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
The libertarian congressman got the much-cherished third ticket out of Iowa, thanks to a strong turnout from independents, Democrats, and young voters. But really, "how do you evaluate a candidate like Ron Paul?" says National Review's Geraghty. "He's a Republican candidate for those who hate all of the other Republican candidates." If anything, Paul proved he could mount a strong third-party bid, Sarah Palin tells Fox's Neil Cavuto. That gives him power, and "the worst thing that the GOP machine can do is marginalize Ron Paul and his supporters."
President Obama
The Santorum-Romney split means this GOP race "could go on for a long time, and damage everyone involved," says Andrew Sullivan at The Daily Beast. "Romney is failing to catch fire," and "once the vetting of Santorum gets going," he will lose a lot of young voters over his out-there views. And "in a year when the GOP was supposed to be rearing to defeat Obama," the Right failed to turn out more Republican voters than in 2008. "Obama cannot be too worried tonight, can he?"
LOSERS
Ron Paul
Paul is upbeat about his third-place finish, despite having led in recent polls and early caucus returns, and getting as high as 50 percent in online betting markets to win Iowa. But before this gets "lost in the shuffle," says Allahpundit at Hot Air, remember "that Ron Paul felt confident enough about his position this weekend to predict a first or second place finish. Quote: 'I doubt if I'll come in third or fourth.'" Plus, says Jennifer Rubin at The Washington Post, he only placed this high because of "independent voters who crashed the Iowa caucuses," not the Republicans who will ultimately decide the nomination.
Rick Perry
Perry finished in a lowly fifth, despite spending as much as $6 million in the state. That was enough to have him "headed back to Texas to 'reassess' whether there's a path to the nomination for him," says Hot Air's Allahpundit. That sure "sounds like it's over." Now that he's apparently dropping out, Perry actually "looks relieved in a way," says Sullivan at The Daily Beast. I bet the GOP is, too. "Perry is one of the most embarrassingly awful candidates for a national party since Sarah Palin."
Michele Bachmann
Bachmann had high hopes for Iowa after winning a much-touted popularity contest in Ames last August, but her embarrassingly low 6,000-vote statewide tally on Tuesday is "just slightly more than she got in the Ames Straw Poll," says Jim Newell at Gawker. "She will have to drop out." Yeah, the Minnesota congresswoman "is kidding herself if she doesn't realize that her quest is finished, says Commentary's Tobin. "Bachmann is a passionate ideologue but she never made a case for herself as a potential president."
Republican Party
Fewer Republicans caucused in Iowa this year than in 2008, which is bad news for a party banking on "huge waves of enthusiasm" to unseat Obama, says Nate Silver at The New York Times. Indeed, "more people are tweeting this caucus than are voting in it. Literally," says Commentary's John Podhoretz on Twitter. Romney is still the favorite to win the nomination, says Scott Galupo at U.S. News, but he certainly didn't "show that he can generate the kind of groundswell of enthusiasm that, if you're a Republican, you'd like to see right now." Worse for the GOP, Romney did best "among wealthy, older voters," a "segment of the country that's literally dying."
Create an account with the same email registered to your subscription to unlock access.
-
The toilet roll tax: UK's strange VAT rules
The Explainer 'Mysterious' and 'absurd' tax brought in £168 billion to HMRC last year
By The Week UK Published
-
Why is Tesla stumbling?
In the Spotlight More competition, confusion about the future and a giant pay package for Elon Musk
By Joel Mathis, The Week US Published
-
How Taylor Swift changed copyright negotiations in music
under the radar The success of Taylor's Version rerecordings has put new pressure on record labels
By Theara Coleman, The Week US Published
-
Arizona court reinstates 1864 abortion ban
Speed Read The law makes all abortions illegal in the state except to save the mother's life
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published
-
Trump, billions richer, is selling Bibles
Speed Read The former president is hawking a $60 "God Bless the USA Bible"
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
The debate about Biden's age and mental fitness
In Depth Some critics argue Biden is too old to run again. Does the argument have merit?
By Grayson Quay Published
-
How would a second Trump presidency affect Britain?
Today's Big Question Re-election of Republican frontrunner could threaten UK security, warns former head of secret service
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
'Rwanda plan is less a deterrent and more a bluff'
Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
By The Week UK Published
-
Henry Kissinger dies aged 100: a complicated legacy?
Talking Point Top US diplomat and Nobel Peace Prize winner remembered as both foreign policy genius and war criminal
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Last updated
-
Trump’s rhetoric: a shift to 'straight-up Nazi talk'
Why everyone's talking about Would-be president's sinister language is backed by an incendiary policy agenda, say commentators
By The Week UK Published
-
More covfefe: is the world ready for a second Donald Trump presidency?
Today's Big Question Republican's re-election would be a 'nightmare' scenario for Europe, Ukraine and the West
By Sorcha Bradley, The Week UK Published