The midterm polling 'roller coaster': 5 theories

Last week Gallup had a record 10-point GOP lead in its generic party matchup; this week, the two parties are tied. Is the race for control of Congress really that fluid?

U.S. Capitol
(Image credit: Corbis)

Republicans and Democrats are both expecting this election year to be a bad one for Democrats, and hundreds of polls between now and Nov. 2 will attempt to predict just how bad. So far, the picture has been rather unstable, especially regarding the generic poll question of which party voters like best. Capping off a roller-coaster summer, Gallup last week reported a shocking 10-point GOP advantage, the party's biggest lead over Democrats since 1942; but this week, the same Gallup poll finds the parties are tied. Commentators respond to the volatility and consider the implications for the November elections:

1. Polls, especially generic ones, are unreliable

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