The 2016 race could be a lot closer than you think

It's hard to find anyone right now who thinks Donald Trump is going to win in November. After all, he's — well, he's Donald Trump, for Pete's sake. So the more relevant question seems to be whether he'll drag the Republicans down so far that they'll lose the Senate and the House, too, or whether he'll destroy the Republican brand for a generation. But I have some scary news: This election could be a lot closer than you think.

Before you faint dead away, I'm not saying Trump is going to win. Unless there's some kind of catastrophic event like a plunge into recession or a terrorist attack that takes thousands of lives, it's extremely unlikely. But the race will probably stay unsettlingly close all the way to election day.

If the Democratic nominee were someone other than Hillary Clinton, that might not be the case. But Clinton's relationship to the voting public is, shall we say, complicated. After enduring years of bludgeoning from Republicans, antipathy from the media, and innumerable controversies — some of which were utterly fabricated and others of which may have been her fault initially but were blown out of all rational proportion — there's a large portion of the electorate that just doesn't like her. That may change over the course of the campaign as people look at her in relation to Trump, but for now around 55 percent of the public has an unfavorable view of her.

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Fortunately for her, Trump's unfavorables are even higher — but his are slowly coming down. That's because Republicans at both the elite and mass level are beginning to make peace with the idea that he's going to be their nominee. If you look at polls from a year ago and polls today, you'll find more Republicans saying they view him favorably, they think he's qualified, and they have confidence in him. That isn't because he showed himself to be such a terrific guy over the course of the primaries. It's because they're now comparing him to the alternative, which is a Democrat (independents and Democrats view him just as poorly as they did a year ago).

All the talk of third-party runs and Republicans sitting out the campaign should be understood for what it is: the expression of genuine sentiments, but ones held by a relatively small number of people. The vast majority of Republicans will cast their ballots for Trump, even if he's not the person they wish he would be.

That means that in a closely divided country, Trump is going to have enough support to stay close with Clinton, even if he has alienated key voting groups and even if he isn't able to mobilize some huge new constituency of angry white people. It's why, in the general election horse race polls, he's only trailing Clinton by a few points.

That's the bad news for those who view a Trump presidency with horror. The good news is that a "close" election can actually be less close than it appears.

Consider 2012. Barack Obama beat Mitt Romney by 51-47, around the same size difference as Clinton v. Trump shows now. But Obama won the Electoral College by 332-206. And if you look state by state, it's hard to imagine which of the states Obama won that Trump could move into the Republican column.

That's not to mention the demographic firewall building around Clinton's candidacy, with her strong leads among women, young people, African-Americans, and Hispanics — who not only despise Trump but are looking particularly motivated to turn out this year.

Nevertheless, given all the beating of breasts and tearing of hair on the Republican side, it might be easy to fall into the trap of thinking this will be a blowout election for Democrats, with Clinton winning by a spectacular margin. That won't happen, because partisan attachments have become so firm that they can survive even the candidacy of Donald Trump. Lots of Republicans have misgivings about him, but as the election goes on they'll find ways to convince themselves that he deserves their votes. That will put a floor on his support — probably somewhere around 45 percent — that it will be almost impossible for him to fall below.

Which means that for the next five and a half months until election day, the polls probably won't show Clinton pulling away — and indeed, you may even see a few showing Trump in the lead. But before you panic, remember that it was always going to be this way.