Trump will get away with everything
The president is impervious to punishment
Who is the unnamed "candidate for federal office" at whose behest Michael Cohen made payments in 2016 to two women with whom President Trump is alleged to have had affairs? It would be very amusing if we were all wrong and it turned out to be Bernie Sanders knifing Hillary Clinton in the back.
This is unlikely. Everyone who has been following the news believes that President Trump is in what legal experts refer to as "deep shit." This has nothing to do with how many Nigerian prince email scams Don Jr. answered or who had a cup of coffee once with somebody with a vaguely Russian-sounding last name or who got the timeline wrong about ordinary meetings with foreign officials. Instead it involves the incontestable violation of federal campaign finance law.
I am not so sure the president will have to answer for it.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
There is, simply put, no constitutional framework according to which a sitting president can be prosecuted. Trump is the head of the executive branch. The authority of every federal prosecutor, "special" or otherwise, is derived ultimately from the president, who will not, presumably, submit to some grossly irregular attempt at his deposition. There is, of course, the possibility of a prosecution by one of the states — New York, for example. But what would prevent Trump, if indicted on, say, wire fraud or tax evasion charges in Albany, from haughtily disregarding them? Who in the world has the power — never mind the authority — to compel the commander in chief of the armed forces to appear in court? It's never going to happen.
The only mechanism for punishing Trump is impeachment by the House of Representatives, which is likely to be under Democratic control next year, and removal from office by the Senate, which will remain in Republican hands. The former is, I think, almost certainly going to happen; the latter seems to me supremely unlikely.
Trump has proven over and over again that he is the most popular politician in the country with an R next to his name. He was the only one of the 17 Republican candidates with a chance at winning the election in 2016. He shows every sign of winning again in two years. Mitch McConnell understands this. He will not direct his caucus to vote for impeachment because he understands, I think, that Vice President Mike Pence, running for re-election as a generic lower-taxes Moral Majority Republican, would lose to a halfway competent Democratic challenger in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and possibly Ohio.
Meanwhile the sitting Republicans who affect distaste for the president — Bob Corker and Jeff Flake — are retiring or, in the case of John McCain, unlikely for other reasons to take part in such proceedings. Other occasional critics of Trump, such as Lindsey Graham and Rand Paul, have shown that at the end of the day they are company men. Granting the likelihood of an obligatory squish vote from Susan Collins and a showboating defection from Ben Sasse, even a unified Democratic minority would come nowhere near the two-thirds required to remove Trump.
There also remains the possibility that an indictment could be filed now by Special Counsel Robert Mueller but not taken up until 2021. Is this at all likely? "I shouldn't comment," an unnamed official in the Department of Justice told me when I asked him. But if Trump wins re-election in 2020 he will brush pass the statute of limitations for the offenses in question, which require a prosecution to take place within five years of the date of the alleged crime.
It is easy to imagine a Democratic successor to Trump going after him after 2024 for offenses with a more generous statute of limitations, assuming evidence of such crimes can be discovered. But even if this seemed likely — if it were to become, for example, one of the principal themes of the 2024 Democratic nominee's campaign — I think Trump still gets off the hook. How? At some point in 2024 the president could simply resign, citing his health and insisting that he had succeeded and made America the greatest country in the history of countries and so had nothing left to do. He would be replaced, with a month or two remaining until the election, by the sitting vice president, who could be someone other than Pence if need be — it would be dirty work, after all. This person could issue the sort of blanket pardon that Gerald Ford arranged for Richard Nixon. If Trump is ever prosecuted it will be because he decides to submit to it voluntarily, not because it is forced upon him by his enemies. Otherwise, it seems to me that he is invulnerable.
What are the takeaways from this far-flung but not, I think, baseless speculation? One is that Mueller's special counsel investigation has not been fruitless. It is, after all, thanks to Mueller that Michael Cohen, the president's former attorney, pleaded guilty in New York after admitting that he made payments to two pornographic actresses. But the charges against Cohen, like those on which Paul Manafort was also convicted on Tuesday, have nothing to do with Russian meddling or with collusion between the Kremlin and Trump's campaign. The Mueller investigation is still what its critics have always claimed: an attempt to bring down the duly elected president of the United States by any (legal) means possible.
Which is the real point here. The most significant lesson of the Trump era in American politics is that no one actually cares about so-called "norms" or ethics or hoary phrases like "separation of powers." The same people who feign outrage when the president directs his attorney general to consider investigating the conduct of Obama-era officials would have no problem with Attorney General Kamala Harris prosecuting Trump under any imaginable pretext. The elaborate machinery of our judicial system — prosecutors, indictments, hearings, judges, verdicts — is simply an extension of the ruling party's authority. It cannot be directed against the head of that party, as we were shown during the Clinton administration.
I for one am glad that we are all on the same page now.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Matthew Walther is a national correspondent at The Week. His work has also appeared in First Things, The Spectator of London, The Catholic Herald, National Review, and other publications. He is currently writing a biography of the Rev. Montague Summers. He is also a Robert Novak Journalism Fellow.
-
'It may not be surprising that creative work is used without permission'
Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
By Justin Klawans, The Week US Published
-
5 simple items to help make your airplane seat more comfortable
The Week Recommends Gel cushions and inflatable travel pillows make a world of difference
By Catherine Garcia, The Week US Published
-
How safe are cruise ships in storms?
The Explainer The vessels are always prepared
By Devika Rao, The Week US Published
-
US election: who the billionaires are backing
The Explainer More have endorsed Kamala Harris than Donald Trump, but among the 'ultra-rich' the split is more even
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
US election: where things stand with one week to go
The Explainer Harris' lead in the polls has been narrowing in Trump's favour, but her campaign remains 'cautiously optimistic'
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Is Trump okay?
Today's Big Question Former president's mental fitness and alleged cognitive decline firmly back in the spotlight after 'bizarre' town hall event
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
The life and times of Kamala Harris
The Explainer The vice-president is narrowly leading the race to become the next US president. How did she get to where she is now?
By The Week UK Published
-
Will 'weirdly civil' VP debate move dial in US election?
Today's Big Question 'Diametrically opposed' candidates showed 'a lot of commonality' on some issues, but offered competing visions for America's future and democracy
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
1 of 6 'Trump Train' drivers liable in Biden bus blockade
Speed Read Only one of the accused was found liable in the case concerning the deliberate slowing of a 2020 Biden campaign bus
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
How could J.D. Vance impact the special relationship?
Today's Big Question Trump's hawkish pick for VP said UK is the first 'truly Islamist country' with a nuclear weapon
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Biden, Trump urge calm after assassination attempt
Speed Reads A 20-year-old gunman grazed Trump's ear and fatally shot a rally attendee on Saturday
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published