Coronavirus: why local lockdowns may not stem the spread of Covid-19
Data analysis suggests infections have doubled in most restricted regions
With the launch of the NHS Covid-19 app, many Britons now face the prospect of checking their phone to discover that their area has been added to the government’s “red list”.
But data suggests that the local lockdown measures that follow spiralling cases may not be effective in stemming the spread of infections.
“Coronavirus cases have doubled in the majority of English cities and towns that are subject to long-term local lockdowns”, with concerns growing that restrictions are “confusing” and carried out “on the cheap”, The Guardian says. So are the regional restrictions the “new normal” or will they be reviewed as an official strategy?
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
Locked down, cases up
In early August, Health Secretary Matt Hancock told The Times that nationwide restrictions and “very extensive” local lockdowns would be deployed to control a second spike in infections during the winter months.
But analysis of the areas that have already faced a local lockdown suggest that the measure is not curbing the spread of coronavirus.
“In 11 out of 16 English cities and towns where restrictions were imposed nine weeks ago, the infection rate has at least doubled”, The Guardian reports, while “cases in five areas of Greater Manchester rose faster than the England average in that time”.
Leicester is the only area to have had a lockdown imposed where cases fell to a lower level than before the lockdown was implemented. But “in Wigan, cases have risen from seven per 100,000 residents to 102 in that period,” the paper says.
On Tuesday, an further two million Britons were placed under lockdown, when residents of Merseyside, Warrington and Teesside were told they were banned by law from mixing with other households indoors.
The measures came after Knowsley, a borough in Merseyside that is home to over 150,000 residents, was found to have the highest infection rate in England, “with 422 new cases recorded in the seven days to September 25 - the equivalent of 279.7 cases per 100,000 people”, the Liverpool Echo says.
Covid confusion
The finding that local lockdown measures are failing to stop spiking case numbers will trigger concerns after Chief Medical Officer, Professor Chris Whitty, told reporters on Wednesday that regional hotspots can be controlled “if everybody follows the guidance”.
Scientists, MPs and local leaders told The Guardian that “the growing patchwork of local measures - which now cover about 20 million people, nearly a third of the UK population - had failed to bring down coronavirus rates, in part because the rules were unclear”.
Chris Ham, a former chief executive of the King’s Fund think tank, told the paper that the government needs to “redouble its efforts in generating public support for restrictions and using a wide range of community leaders to do so”.
Case numbers were not falling because restrictions are too “complex and confusing”, while the test-and-trace system is “still not working well enough”, Ham added.
But far from lining up to aid the government’s lockdown efforts, some local leaders have begun openly threatening to defy restrictions handed down by Westminster.
The Mayor of Middlesbrough, Andy Preston, this week released a video statement in which he said the lockdown covering the North East was “introduced based on factual inaccuracies and a monstrous and frightening lack of communication, and ignorance”
Continuing that he does not “accept these measures”, Preston called on the government to engage with local leaders to “understand our local knowledge, expertise and ability to get things done, and preserve jobs and well-being”.
In a direct challenge to ministers’ authority, Preston said that “as things stand, we defy the government and we do not accept these measures”, explaining that while “we need to get Covid under control... we need to work with people to find a way of preserving jobs and mental health”.
Beginning to look like Christmas
Preston may be the first regional leader to throw down the gauntlet over lockdown restrictions, but he is by no means the first to publicly complain about Westminster’s approach.
City leaders in Liverpool “have questioned whether the new measures go far enough”, with Mayor Steve Rotherham requesting “access to further scientific evidence, as well as greater financial support to keep businesses afloat”, The Telegraph reports.
Meanwhile, with cases rising rather than falling in areas already under heightened rules, “there is concern that large parts of the country could be left with tighter restrictions for months”, The Guardian says.
With Environment Secretary George Eustice saying measures will only be reconsidered when local infection rates are “more in line with the national trend”, and Johnson keen to ensure Christmas plans can go ahead, an end does not appear to be on the immediate horizon.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Joe Evans is the world news editor at TheWeek.co.uk. He joined the team in 2019 and held roles including deputy news editor and acting news editor before moving into his current position in early 2021. He is a regular panellist on The Week Unwrapped podcast, discussing politics and foreign affairs.
Before joining The Week, he worked as a freelance journalist covering the UK and Ireland for German newspapers and magazines. A series of features on Brexit and the Irish border got him nominated for the Hostwriter Prize in 2019. Prior to settling down in London, he lived and worked in Cambodia, where he ran communications for a non-governmental organisation and worked as a journalist covering Southeast Asia. He has a master’s degree in journalism from City, University of London, and before that studied English Literature at the University of Manchester.
-
How Harris and Trump differ on education
The Explainer Trump wants to disband the Department of Education. Harris wants to boost teacher pay.
By Joel Mathis, The Week US Published
-
How to minimize capital gains tax on investments
The Explainer It can take a chunk out of your profits
By Becca Stanek, The Week US Published
-
Crossword: November 4, 2024
The Week's daily crossword
By The Week Staff Published
-
What is the next Tory leader up against?
Today's Big Question Kemi Badenoch or Robert Jenrick will have to unify warring factions and win back disillusioned voters – without alienating the centre ground
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
What is Lammy hoping to achieve in China?
Today's Big Question Foreign secretary heads to Beijing as Labour seeks cooperation on global challenges and courts opportunities for trade and investment
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Bob Woodward's War: the explosive Trump revelations
In the spotlight Nobody can beat Watergate veteran at 'getting the story of the White House from the inside'
By Chas Newkey-Burden, The Week UK Published
-
Trump kept up with Putin, sent Covid tests, book says
Speed Read The revelation comes courtesy of a new book by Bob Woodward
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
'The federal government's response to the latest surge has been tepid at best'
Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
By Justin Klawans, The Week US Published
-
Is Britain about to 'boil over'?
Today's Big Question A message shared across far-right groups listed more than 30 potential targets for violence in the UK today
By Sorcha Bradley, The Week UK Published
-
UK's Starmer slams 'far-right thuggery' at riots
Speed Read The anti-immigrant violence was spurred by false rumors that the suspect in the Southport knife attack was an immigrant
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Biden tests positive for Covid in fresh blow to campaign
Speed Read The president said he would consider dropping out of the race if presented with a "medical condition"
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published