How much of a threat does Paul Manafort pose for Donald Trump?

The trial of Donald Trump’s former campaign manager, Paul Manafort, finally got underway yesterday, with most questions centring on how the outcome could impact the investigation into possible collusion between the president’s team and Russia in the run up to the election.

Manafort, a former lobbyist turned political consultant who made his name advising authoritarian regimes before joining the Trump campaign during the 2016 presidential election, faces 18 criminal counts, including bank fraud, and if convicted could face up to 30 years in jail.

While the accusations are largely separate from Manafort’s work on the Trump campaign, “the trial will give the clearest view yet of the evidence that [special investigator Robert] Mueller’s team has gathered since his investigation began in May last year”, reports The Times.

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“Manafort is just one small piece in special counsel Mueller’s puzzle”, writes Darren Samuelsohn for Politico, “but the outcome of this trial will offer up a major propaganda coup to one side or other”.

Mark Corallo, a former spokesman for Trump’s legal team, told Politico: “If Manafort is acquitted it’ll be the pro-Trump side blasting the special counsel, blasting the whole process, urging for the dismissal of the office of special counsel and shutting down the investigation and all of that. If it goes the other way the left and anti-Trump side will be screaming at the top of their lungs that Trump should be impeached.”

Unlike the other 31 people charged by Mueller, Manafort has not co-operated with the special counsel’s investigation, instead choosing to take his chances in court.

Should Manafort decide to cooperate with prosecutors in the event of a guilty verdict, the New York Times says “Mueller’s team will probably have a wide range of questions related to his role in the Trump presidential campaign, including what he knows about the Trump Tower meeting in June 2016 organised by Russian emissaries who promised dirt on Hillary Clinton”.

Vox says the Trump’s former campaign manager is “running out of options” and could still flip if his risky legal strategy unravels.

However, his refusal to cooperate so far has led to the suggestion that Trump, who values loyalty above almost any other quality, could pardon Manafort should he be found guilty.

“He has a right to consider it,” Trump’s personal lawyer and former mayor of New York, Rudy Giuliani, told Reuters. “It's his power.”