Obama just kneecapped Jeb Bush and Chris Christie's 2016 prospects
On immigration, the GOP primary will have little room for nuance
President Obama on Thursday announced his much-anticipated executive action on immigration, and in doing so he lobbed a grenade squarely into the 2016 Republican primary race.
Obama's order will reshape how the feds prioritize deportations of undocumented workers, shielding an estimated five million of them from being kicked out of the country. "We shall not oppress a stranger for we know the heart of a stranger — we were strangers once, too," Obama said, quoting scripture.
By moving ahead solo before the new Congress is sworn in, Obama ensured Republicans will finally have to address immigration reform next year — and on into 2016. This poses a unique problem for two of the GOP's biggest potential presidential candidates who have broken with the party on the issue.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush upset the rank and file earlier this year by calling for a compassionate approach to immigration. In April, he said undocumented workers who enter the country illegally do so as "an act of love" because they "are actually coming to this country to provide for their families." Then there's New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who in January broke with the national party and signed a state-level version of the DREAM Act. Like Bush, he framed his support for reform through the lens of strengthening families.
Among the general public, neither position is politically abhorrent. Polls have consistently found robust majorities of Americans in favor of a pathway to citizenship for undocumented workers. And Americans overwhelmingly supported the Senate's sweeping immigration bill, which incorporated elements of a proposed federal DREAM Act.
Still, both candidates may never reach the general election because their positions are anathema to Republican primary voters.
To understand this predicament, it's worth revisiting Texas Gov. Rick Perry's (R) short-lived 2012 campaign. Though Perry flopped mainly because he displayed the brains and demeanor of a limp windsock, his signature on a bill granting in-state tuition to illegal immigrants left him vulnerable on the right. In one memorable debate, Perry's opponents formed an unspoken alliance and took turns whooping him over that law. Even the humorless Mitt Romney snuck in some jabs, and Perry crumbled.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Little has changed since then. Though Republicans admitted after the 2012 election they needed to do a better job appealing to Latino voters, they saw no viable way to do so without pissing off a base that seethes at even a whiff of "amnesty." The howling last year from conservatives displeased with the Senate's bipartisan bill — a bill supported by more than 70 percent of Latino voters and a huge majority of Independents, too — was so loud it forced cowering House Republicans to stymie the measure into oblivion without even giving it a vote.
Before Thursday, immigration reform was on course to play a role in the next GOP primary. Yet with one stroke of his pen, Obama elevated it from a secondary issue to the very forefront of national debate. Christie and Bush, who already had a difficult messaging task ahead of them, must now either flip the bird to GOP voters or tie themselves in knots trying to walk back their previous positions. (Christie is already engaging in some preemptive flip-flopping, saying he has a top secret position on immigration he can't reveal unless and until he runs for president.)
Even before the president announced the specifics of his plan, Republicans were calling him a tyrant, a dictator, and a monarch. The most unhinged among them suggested responding with another government shutdown or, perhaps, impeachment. Spurred on by grassroots fury and a browbeaten GOP leadership, the wild-eyed vitriol will only deteriorate further into self-parody now that Obama has acted. Come 2016, you can easily imagine Republican presidential candidates stumbling over each other to prove who among them will build the biggest danged fence.
A fence-measuring litmus test on immigration won't favor Bush and Christie given their previous refutations of party orthodoxy. By contrast, Perry and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, both potential 2016 candidates themselves, are gleefully threatening to sue the president for his alleged constitutional encroachment.
How can Christie and Bush compete with that?
Create an account with the same email registered to your subscription to unlock access.
Jon Terbush is an associate editor at TheWeek.com covering politics, sports, and other things he finds interesting. He has previously written for Talking Points Memo, Raw Story, and Business Insider.
-
Israel marks Oct. 7 attack, hits Lebanon, Gaza
Speed Read It has been one year since Hamas attacked Israel festival goers, sparking an escalating conflict in the Middle East
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Florida braces for Milton as FEMA tackles Helene, lies
Speed Read A flurry of misinformation has been spread about the federal response to Hurricane Helene
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Alcohol-free drinks for Sober October
The Week Recommends These are the best booze-free tipples from refreshing pale ales to bittersweet aperitifs
By Irenie Forshaw, The Week UK Published
-
Will 'weirdly civil' VP debate move dial in US election?
Today's Big Question 'Diametrically opposed' candidates showed 'a lot of commonality' on some issues, but offered competing visions for America's future and democracy
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
1 of 6 'Trump Train' drivers liable in Biden bus blockade
Speed Read Only one of the accused was found liable in the case concerning the deliberate slowing of a 2020 Biden campaign bus
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
How could J.D. Vance impact the special relationship?
Today's Big Question Trump's hawkish pick for VP said UK is the first 'truly Islamist country' with a nuclear weapon
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Biden, Trump urge calm after assassination attempt
Speed Reads A 20-year-old gunman grazed Trump's ear and fatally shot a rally attendee on Saturday
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Supreme Court rejects challenge to CFPB
Speed Read The court rejected a conservative-backed challenge to the way the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is funded
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Arizona court reinstates 1864 abortion ban
Speed Read The law makes all abortions illegal in the state except to save the mother's life
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published
-
Trump, billions richer, is selling Bibles
Speed Read The former president is hawking a $60 "God Bless the USA Bible"
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
The debate about Biden's age and mental fitness
In Depth Some critics argue Biden is too old to run again. Does the argument have merit?
By Grayson Quay Published