Why isn't Rick Santorum the 2016 GOP frontrunner?

In just about every presidential election since 1980, the Republican Party has nominated the runner-up from the previous contest. In 1980, 1976 almost-ran Ronald Reagan won the GOP nod; in 1988, Republicans went for 1980 second-placer George H.W. Bush; in 1996, it was Bob Dole, who came in second in 1988; 2008 brought us John McCain, the No. 2 in 2000; and the 2008 runner-up, Mitt Romney, was the nominee in 2012.

Who came in second place in the 2012 Republican primaries? Rick Santorum. The socially conservative former senator from Pennsylvania is giving every indication that he will run again in 2016, says Byron York at The Washington Examiner, "and yet now, no one — no one — is suggesting Santorum will be the frontrunner in 2016, should he choose to run." Why not? And is everyone wrong to write him off?

This week, Santorum is visiting Iowa, York points out, "where Republicans are excited about Sen. Ted Cruz, where they're curious about Gov. Scott Walker, where they want to hear from Gov. Chris Christie and Sen. Marco Rubio and Sen. Rand Paul and other new faces." The media is curious about those new faces, too. But Santorum won 11 primaries and caucuses — including Iowa's — for a reason, York says.

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Each of the 2012 GOP presidential candidates had their moment in the lead, but "Santorum was the one who came closest to a position on the economy that might appeal to middle-income voters alienated by both parties," York says:

In many ways, York makes a compelling argument. "Based on resume, Santorum is a much more plausible presidential candidate and potential president than [Pat] Buchanan or [Steve] Forbes," the also-rans of the 1996 campaign who were nothing more than a blip in 2000, says Pete Spiliakos at First Things. But Santorum is being lumped in with them instead of Dole and Romney and McCain. "He really isn't getting the respect he deserves."

There are some reasons for that, Spiliakos concedes. Santorum didn't run a very tight campaign, he would often ramble in his primary-night speeches, and in the debates he would sometimes lose his temper and couldn't "seem to avoid getting into self-destructive arguments." But these are things that "could probably be mitigated with more money and staffing to take care of the nuts and bolts and help him prepare remarks," Spiliakos says.

Of course, not everyone is on board with the Santorum-as-frontrunner argument. Santorum's fund-raising problems in 2012 weren't an accident, says Daniel Larison at The American Conservative. His strident social conservatism on birth control and abortion turned off even some Republicans, and even York's boosting of Santorum's focus-on-the-little-guy economic message misses just "how allergic many in the GOP are to anything that sounds like economic populism."

Throw in Santorum's foreign policy vulnerabilities — he's "fanatically hawkish in a party that is moving gradually in the other direction," toward Rand Paul — says Larison, and its pretty clear that "if you wanted to invent a politician who could alienate several different parts of the Republican coalition all at once, you would design someone like Santorum."

In the end, says James Joyner at Outside the Beltway, "Santorum may be 'open' to running for president again but he's not the front-runner. Indeed, he's simply not going to be the nominee." Yes, there was that brief moment, right after the Iowa caucuses, when "Santorum seemed like a plausible nominee," but he pretty "quickly revealed himself to be an angry nut trying to tap into petty resentments."