Can Egypt avoid a civil war?

Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood is rejecting the interim government's plan for a transition back to democracy, and urging its supporters to rise up against the military-backed leaders. The Islamist group — which dominated Egypt's political life under Mohamed Morsi, the elected president ousted by the army last week — said the interim president, Adly Mansour, has zero legitimacy.

Mansour has called for restoring elected civilian rule within six months, with a referendum on amendments to the suspended constitution to be followed by parliamentary and then presidential elections. He is cobbling together a cabinet, and his defense minister is warning critics not to challenge the path back to democracy.

The surging tensions are stoking fears of civil war. Is there any way to bring Egypt back from the brink?

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Thomas Friedman says in The New York Times that the only way to stabilize Egypt is to make it clear that the Muslim Brotherhood will be allowed to be a full participant in the transition back to democracy, no matter how angry non-Islamist, secular, and liberal Egyptians are at the Brotherhood and its ally, Morsi, for trying to exclude them.

If there is a consensus as Egypt unravels, it is that there is not much time to avert disaster. Mansour knows this, which is why he mapped out such a swift return to democracy. The National, a newspaper in the United Arab Emirates, says in an editorial that "speed is essential if Egypt's discord is to be channeled back into the political sphere before the situation tumbles out of control."

Mansour's transition plan is "barely possible," The National says, because the economy is in shambles, the Muslim Brotherhood has signaled its total opposition, and the only Islamist party to back Morsi's overthrow, Al Nour, is now boycotting the process.

"Still," The National says, "if Mr. Mansour's cabinet and constitutional panel adopt a conciliatory approach, popular support may follow."

Those counting on peace should perhaps brace for the worst, because Morsi's most ardent backers say the only way out of the crisis is to reinstate him. Evan Hill at Foreign Policy says members of the Brotherhood and other Islamists "have settled in for a long fight," staging sit-ins at mosques and protesting in Cairo's streets.

Morsi's supporters tell Foreign Policy that they once trusted the army's chief, Abdul Fattah al-Sisi, but now view him as a traitor for pushing the elected leader from power. Aisha Ibrahim, a housewife wearing a niqab and a green headband reading "yes to legitimacy," tells Foreign Policy that after Monday's massacre of more than 50 Morsi supporters by soldiers, there can be no negotiations with the military. "After what happened? Never, never," she says. "What should happen is that Doctor Morsi returns."

Still, not everyone thinks the situation will devolve into a true civil war. One reason, says Laura Dean at The New Republic, is nobody would stand a chance against Egypt's military.