Will Hillary freeze the Invisible Primary?
She is the 800-pound gorilla in a pantsuit
So Hillary Clinton is now a citizen in repose. The brief frenzy of 2016 speculation that accompanied the inauguration has died down, and thank goodness, because we're all supposed to hate presidential politics, and we're supposed to let the current president govern. The Invisible Primary refers to the period before the formal party primaries. During this period, candidates figure out if they want to run, recruit staff, decide how they want to run, recruit donors, and plan their campaign. It takes place behind closed doors, usually, with brief flashes of publicity only to ensure that the political reporting class dutifully begins to assess the candidate's seriousness and informal campaign apparatus.
These days, the Invisible Primary is quite visible. Political operatives acquire a celebrity; their movements are tracked as they feel out candidates. Political action committee disbursements are scrutinized; how much of the money is going to Iowa or New Hampshire? Whose loyalists get the most representation on the rules committee? Who was seen having dinner with the head of the AFL-CIO?
But this year, all that might just stop. The Democratic Party has two tiers of candidates. In order for the second tier of candidates to even conceive of running, then the first tier has to step aside. That first tier, of course, is occupied by Clinton. Her intentions are unknowable, but trust me when I tell you that, to the extent that the Democratic Party still has reliable donors and committed activists, the lion's share are hoping Clinton runs and are ready to endorse her immediately. She is the 800-pound gorilla in a pantsuit. No one moves until she does.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
So if you're Martin O'Malley or Andrew Cuomo, what do you do? There's not much you can do. You can hire some staff; O'Malley just booked the services of Teddy Davis for "strategic communications." Davis knows the political world in and out. He will handle O'Malley's quiet outreach to reporters and others. (Disclosure: I helped hire him as an intern for the ABC News Political Unit a decade ago.) I assume that, at some point, O'Malley will reach out to Clinton to get a feel for whether any more public activity would offend her. Cuomo probably won't. He's too proud for that. But how he'll find donors in New York... I don't know.
One truth that none of the potential 2016 candidates will admit to is that they'd be willing to be Clinton's vice president. (Current veep Joe Biden is the exception. He's up or out.) That's why they have to tread carefully. They cannot risk offending the Clinton universe even if she were to lose the presidency in 2016 because they will need that apparatus, or a lot of it, very quickly for 2020. Never say never, but for the moment, no one is going to run for president the way Barack Obama did.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Marc Ambinder is TheWeek.com's editor-at-large. He is the author, with D.B. Grady, of The Command and Deep State: Inside the Government Secrecy Industry. Marc is also a contributing editor for The Atlantic and GQ. Formerly, he served as White House correspondent for National Journal, chief political consultant for CBS News, and politics editor at The Atlantic. Marc is a 2001 graduate of Harvard. He is married to Michael Park, a corporate strategy consultant, and lives in Los Angeles.
-
'Solitude has become a notable, and worrisome, trend of our times'
Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
By Anya Jaremko-Greenwold, The Week US Published
-
Blake Lively accuses rom-com costar of smear job
Speed Read The actor accused Justin Baldoni, her director and costar on "It Ends With Us," of sexual harassment and a revenge campaign
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Germany arrests anti-Islam Saudi in SUV attack
Speed Read The attack on a Christmas market in Magdeburg left five people dead and more than 200 wounded
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
US election: who the billionaires are backing
The Explainer More have endorsed Kamala Harris than Donald Trump, but among the 'ultra-rich' the split is more even
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
US election: where things stand with one week to go
The Explainer Harris' lead in the polls has been narrowing in Trump's favour, but her campaign remains 'cautiously optimistic'
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Is Trump okay?
Today's Big Question Former president's mental fitness and alleged cognitive decline firmly back in the spotlight after 'bizarre' town hall event
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
The life and times of Kamala Harris
The Explainer The vice-president is narrowly leading the race to become the next US president. How did she get to where she is now?
By The Week UK Published
-
Will 'weirdly civil' VP debate move dial in US election?
Today's Big Question 'Diametrically opposed' candidates showed 'a lot of commonality' on some issues, but offered competing visions for America's future and democracy
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
1 of 6 'Trump Train' drivers liable in Biden bus blockade
Speed Read Only one of the accused was found liable in the case concerning the deliberate slowing of a 2020 Biden campaign bus
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
How could J.D. Vance impact the special relationship?
Today's Big Question Trump's hawkish pick for VP said UK is the first 'truly Islamist country' with a nuclear weapon
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Biden, Trump urge calm after assassination attempt
Speed Reads A 20-year-old gunman grazed Trump's ear and fatally shot a rally attendee on Saturday
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published