Arizona Senate: The race at a glance

Rep. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.) looks on as Richard Carmona, right, shakes hands with moderator Ted Simons before an Arizona Senate debate on Oct. 10: Flake looked to have an easy victory ahead of — (Image credit: AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin)

"It's been almost 18 years since there was a Democrat in the Senate from Arizona," says Sean Sullivan at The Washington Post. Few people expected that to change when Sen. Jon Kyl (R) announced his retirement and Rep. Jeff Flake (R), Kyl's handpicked choice, threw his hat in the ring. But as Flake got bogged down in a costly primary race against former pal Wil Cardon, Democrats recruited George W. Bush's surgeon general, Richard Carmona, a decorated military veteran and former deputy sheriff with an independent streak, and Hispanic to boot. Arizona is still a solidly red state, and Flake is still leading in most polls, but it's becoming increasingly clear, says John Guzzon at Modern Times Magazine, that "Carmona is palpably close to winning."

THE CANDIDATES

The Week

Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

SUBSCRIBE & SAVE

https://cdn.mos.cms.futurecdn.net/flexiimages/jacafc5zvs1692883516.jpg

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters

Join more than 350,000 subscribers and keep yourself informed with a selection of The Week’s most interesting, enlightening and entertaining stories - plus daily puzzles.

Latest Videos FromThe Week

Watch full video here:

Flake and the GOP have seized on a phone call President Obama made to Carmona (then a registered independent) last year to urge him to enter the race as a Democrat, telling voters that the call proves Carmona is "Obama's man in Arizona," and would be a "rubber stamp" if Obama wins re-election. Carmona says that Flake's signature, rigid opposition to Congressional earmarks has hurt Arizona, stifling investment and job creation, and accuses him of flip-flopping to oppose immigration reform and voting against veterans' care. ObamaCare is also an issue in the race, with Flake vowing to repeal it and Carmona agreeing with the concept but urging fixes to the law.

Each party is now touting internal polls showing their candidate ahead, but most political scorekeepers — Larry Sabato, Stu Rothenburg, and Nate Silver — have the race tilting or leaning Republican. Charlie Cook's shop just changed the race to "toss-up," however, and Democrats think it's in play enough to sink more than $1 million into Carmona's bid — and send Bill Clinton to campaign on his behalf. In order to win, Carmona has to get Latinos to turn out in force and win over independents, who make up about a third of the electorate. That said, the strong GOP tilt to the state may be too much for the Democrats to overcome this year, even with a strong candidate like Carmona. (How strong? Republicans tried to recruit him in 2005.)