Why is the GOP struggling to field 2012 candidates? 4 theories
Haley Barbour is the latest big-name Republican to announce he won't go for the party's presidential nomination. Why won't anyone take on Obama?
When Gov. Haley Barbour (R-Miss.) bowed out of the 2012 presidential race this week, he joined some powerful company. A parade of big-name Republicans has decided not to run — including Rep. Mike Pence of Indiana, Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey, and Sen. Marco Rubio and former Gov. Jeb Bush of Florida. Why are the GOP's heavy-hitters so reluctant to take on President Obama? Here, four theories:
1. Obama is just too strong
President Obama's approval ratings may have dipped below 50 percent, says Michael D. Shear at The New York Times, but "he remains personally popular." And if the economy improves between now and the election, even Mitt Romney, "one of the handful of very likely candidates" for the GOP nomination, has admitted the president will be tough to beat. Plus, Obama is expected to raise a gigantic $1 billion, which he'll aim directly at his almost surely underfunded challenger.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
2. There's always 2016
The Oval Office will be open in 2016 — and Vice President Joe Biden almost certainly won't run for the nation's top job — so many candidates probably figure they'll have a better shot if they wait, says Shear. Taking on an incumbent president — even an unpopular one — is not an enviable task.
3. The GOP is just weeding out candidates early
Barbour, Pence, and the others didn't exactly opt out, says Jonathan Bernstein at A Plain Blog about Politics. They put their names out there, but wound up losers in the pre-campaign period known as the "invisible primary." Whether they were official candidates or not, many Republicans have "hired staff, sought endorsements, traveled to Iowa and New Hampshire and South Carolina — they contested the invisible primary." So the GOP field isn't really small — there are still plenty of names left in contention. It's just that "the winnowing has begun early."
4. In the year of the Tea Party, insiders are not eager to rush in
"With conservative voters and Tea Party activists sharply challenging the party's establishment," says John Whitesides at Reuters, strategists say candidates are biding their time so they won't "look like over-eager professional politicians." That explains why somebody like Barbour, a former RNC chairman himself, quickly realized 2012 wasn't going to be his year. But the slate of candidates is slowly becoming clear, with Romney and former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty already jumping in. And with Fox News holding a nationally televised forum on May 5, an even bigger rush could begin soon.
Create an account with the same email registered to your subscription to unlock access.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
-
Why is Labour looking to Italy on migration?
Today's Big Question Keir Starmer wants to learn lessons from Giorgia Meloni, but not everyone is impressed with the Albania agreement
By Elizabeth Carr-Ellis, The Week UK Published
-
A foodie guide to Seattle
The Week Recommends From bustling markets to burger joints, these are the best spots in the city
By Neil Davey Published
-
'Hope in America'
Today's Newspapers A roundup of the headlines from the US front pages
By The Week Staff Published
-
How could J.D. Vance impact the special relationship?
Today's Big Question Trump's hawkish pick for VP said UK is the first 'truly Islamist country' with a nuclear weapon
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Biden, Trump urge calm after assassination attempt
Speed Reads A 20-year-old gunman grazed Trump's ear and fatally shot a rally attendee on Saturday
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Supreme Court rejects challenge to CFPB
Speed Read The court rejected a conservative-backed challenge to the way the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is funded
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Arizona court reinstates 1864 abortion ban
Speed Read The law makes all abortions illegal in the state except to save the mother's life
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published
-
Trump, billions richer, is selling Bibles
Speed Read The former president is hawking a $60 "God Bless the USA Bible"
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
The debate about Biden's age and mental fitness
In Depth Some critics argue Biden is too old to run again. Does the argument have merit?
By Grayson Quay Published
-
How would a second Trump presidency affect Britain?
Today's Big Question Re-election of Republican frontrunner could threaten UK security, warns former head of secret service
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Trump’s rhetoric: a shift to 'straight-up Nazi talk'
Why everyone's talking about Would-be president's sinister language is backed by an incendiary policy agenda, say commentators
By The Week UK Published