Turkey: Hopes and perils of the Arab Spring

“Political earthquakes have aftershocks, too,” said Bernard Guetta in Paris’s Libération. As a result of the Arab Spring, Turkey is emerging as a model for a modern Islamic nation. Suddenly, the country “seems to have regained influence in countries that were once its possessions” under the Ottoman Empire. Arab societies see modern Turkey as an example of a Muslim country undergoing an economic boom while it successfully—if imperfectly—balances the dictates of Islam with the demands of a state of law. But these uprisings could have a “boomerang effect” on Turkey. A new Arab generation “informed by the pluralism of the Internet and satellite television” is leading the charge, while the Islamists remain suspicious of modernity and democracy. This “could well give some new ideas” to Turkey’s own young urban class, which is already chafing at the reformist vision of Islamism promoted by Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party.

That may be one reason why Turkey’s current triumphalism over its foreign policy rings a bit hollow, said Kai Strittmatter in Munich’s Süddeutsche Zeitung. The pro-government press has conveniently forgotten that Erdogan initially “categorically opposed” any intervention in Libya. Last week it was fulsomely praising him for preventing French President Nicolas Sarkozy from “taking over the reins” of the no-fly-zone operation, leaving them in NATO’s hands instead. Turkey may have more trouble finessing its next foreign policy headache: Syria, with which it shares a long border. After decades of tension, Ankara has finally developed cordial relations with Damascus. But now the Assad regime’s problems “put Erdogan in a bind.” On one hand he’d like to “play the part of democratic trailblazer,” as he did with his early calls for Hosni Mubarak’s resignation in Egypt. On the other, Turkey “fears for the stability of Syria,” with which it shares a possibly explosive mix of ethnic and religious minorities.

What Turkey really needs is a foreign policy that doesn’t seem “like a caravan being formed along the way,” said Cengiz Aktar in Istanbul’s Hurriyet.com. The current mishmash often sounds like “passé third-world rhetoric” tarted up with pan-Islamist elements. Erdogan recently stated, for instance, that “Muslims do not commit genocide.” Such missteps suggest that his government doesn’t truly understand democracy, and “is not at all ready to export it yet.”

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Closer relations with Europe might help, said Katinka Barysch in Istanbul’s Today’s Zaman. Turkey’s feelings have been hurt because negotiations over its entry into the European Union have stalled, and many EU countries are weary of Ankara’s often bristly tone. Yet both sides “could benefit greatly” from better cooperation in foreign policy. Europe could “regain soft power” by working alongside “a country that still enjoys much esteem across the Arab world.” And since Erdogan’s party has strong ties to Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood and other Islamist movements, it could help turn them “into electable political parties.” First, though, Turkey must truly embrace democracy.