How 'pitiful' is the Republican presidential field?

Though Mike Huckabee has the strongest favorability rating among potential Republican presidential contenders, the numbers are not encouraging.

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last updated 8 January 2015

Republican insiders are fretting about the party's crop of likely 2012 presidential candidates, and they "have some legitimate reason to worry," says The New York Times polling guru Nate Silver. According to public opinion polls, the field is currently "quite weak." Only two likely Republican contenders — Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney — have positive favorability ratings. Sarah Palin and Newt Gingrich have "especially poor" ratings, in the negative double digits. Is the 2012 GOP field, as The Atlantic's Andrew Sullivan puts it, irredeemably "pitiful?"

The GOP field is weak: These numbers are "bad news for Republicans," says Jim Lindgren in The Volokh Conspiracy. Some of the GOP contenders could make "better than average presidents," but "I see no one who as yet looks to be a better than average candidate." If this is the best the GOP can muster, "President Obama will be hard to beat."

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This is no big deal: The "stunning unpopularity" of the field actually "doesn't strike me as something Republicans should worry about," says Jamelle Bouie in The American Prospect. At least not this early. "Favorability" just means "familiarity" at this stage, and many eventual winners were in mediocre shape early on. Two good examples: At roughly this in their campaign cycles, Bill Clinton had net favorability rating of just +3, while Ronald Reagan's was -1.

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