Can Mitt Romney be president?
The outlook is sunny. But he faces rough seas ahead
![David Frum](https://cdn.mos.cms.futurecdn.net/Ez5R86cR5L8aaqNBRZZooi-415-80.jpg)
Tea Party, Shmea Party. Post-election surveys suggest that Mitt Romney still leads as the favored Republican presidential candidate for 2012.
His lead looks especially big in New Hampshire: Almost 30 points.
Does this big lead translate into a smooth ride to the nomination?
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
![https://cdn.mos.cms.futurecdn.net/flexiimages/jacafc5zvs1692883516.jpg](https://cdn.mos.cms.futurecdn.net/flexiimages/jacafc5zvs1692883516-320-80.jpg)
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
That depends on whether Romney's campaign follows the path of George W. Bush's in 2000 — or Hillary Clinton's in 2008.
Here's the happy scenario for Romney: Like Bush in 2000, Romney is the Republican heir apparent in 2012. Like Bush, Romney has the backing of the party's biggest donors. Like Bush, Romney has national campaign experience. Like Bush, Romney faces opponents who can be dismissed as either obscure (Pawlenty, Daniels) or extreme (Palin, Gingrich.)
Finally, like Bush, Romney faces one early bump on the way to the nomination (Romney polls badly in Iowa, just as Bush did in New Hampshire) — but otherwise seems the most popular candidate in most of the early voting states.
There's a long list available of alternatives and there's one name that does not get mentioned nearly often enough: Jeb Bush.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
So: Smooth sailing?
Maybe not. Everything that can be said of Romney and Bush could have been said of Hillary Clinton. Heir apparent? Check. Support of biggest donors? Check. National-campaign experience? Check. Opponents obscure (Barack Obama) or extreme (John Edwards)? Few visible roadblocks ahead?
Check, check, and check.
Even if Hillary Clinton had every advantage, her campaign was ultimately sunk by two holes beneath the water line: Her vote for the Iraq war and the perception of her husband's administration as too conservative on economic issues.
These two issues damaged Clinton with the most intense party activists — and it was these activists who dominated the caucus states that gave Barack Obama his margin of victory.
Now look again at Romney. The sort of person who writes a big check to the GOP every cycle may see in Romney a competent CEO for the United States. But to the people who will spend hours in an Iowa caucus room, Romney also has two holes below his water line: TARP and healthcare reform.
Hillary Clinton hesitated for months, then belatedly repudiated her Iraq vote in hope of mollifying party activists. Romney has worked harder and faster to placate his internal critics by drawing distinctions between his health reform in Massachusetts and the plan enacted in Washington — and vehemently opposing the latter. At most, we can say the verdict of the Republican base is pending.
How will we know if Romney is Bush or Clinton?
If Romney pulls far ahead in his fundraising — if the more conservative Republicans continue to divide between Palin, Gingrich and others — and if he locks up endorsements early, then 2000 is repeating itself and he's the next Bush.
But if those things do not happen, then Romney faces a grim outlook.
The people who support him are the same people who regard Sarah Palin as utterly unacceptable, both as a candidate and as a president. If Romney does not win early, fear of Palin will send them hunting fast for another alternative. There's a long list available of such alternatives and there's one name that does not get mentioned nearly often enough: Jeb Bush.
Yes, Bush says he's not running.
But if it's January 2012 — and if Romney has finished fourth in Iowa and is plunging in national polls, Republican governors, members of Congress and donors will be asking the question: Who can put together a national organization — and raise tens of millions of dollars — in six weeks flat? And that's a question that points back to the mightiest fund-raising dynasty in the Grand Old Party.
Create an account with the same email registered to your subscription to unlock access.
-
Big Tech's answer for AI-driven job loss: universal basic income
In The Spotlight A new study reveals the strengths and limitations
By Joel Mathis, The Week US Published
-
'I will not be silent' on Gaza, says Kamala Harris
Speed Read In a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Harris supported Israel's right to defend itself while expressing a desire to end Palestinian suffering
By Arion McNicoll, The Week UK Published
-
'How long can TikTok dominate as a social network?'
Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
By Justin Klawans, The Week US Published
-
How could J.D. Vance impact the special relationship?
Today's Big Question Trump's hawkish pick for VP said UK is the first 'truly Islamist country' with a nuclear weapon
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Biden, Trump urge calm after assassination attempt
Speed Reads A 20-year-old gunman grazed Trump's ear and fatally shot a rally attendee on Saturday
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Supreme Court rejects challenge to CFPB
Speed Read The court rejected a conservative-backed challenge to the way the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is funded
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Arizona court reinstates 1864 abortion ban
Speed Read The law makes all abortions illegal in the state except to save the mother's life
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published
-
Trump, billions richer, is selling Bibles
Speed Read The former president is hawking a $60 "God Bless the USA Bible"
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
The debate about Biden's age and mental fitness
In Depth Some critics argue Biden is too old to run again. Does the argument have merit?
By Grayson Quay Published
-
How would a second Trump presidency affect Britain?
Today's Big Question Re-election of Republican frontrunner could threaten UK security, warns former head of secret service
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
'Rwanda plan is less a deterrent and more a bluff'
Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
By The Week UK Published