Iraqis vote for a democratic future

What happened

Iraq took the next step in its evolution as a democracy this week with a national election that appeared likely to require rival factions to form a coalition government including Shiites, Sunnis, and Kurds. With final vote tallies from 47,000 polling stations not expected until late March, rival candidate slates led by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and by former interim Prime Minister Ayad Allawi both claimed to have won the most seats in Iraq’s 325-seat parliament, with neither likely to command a majority on its own. Despite Election Day bombings that killed more than three dozen Iraqis, roughly 62 percent of the electorate voted, choosing from among 6,100 candidates from more than 80 political parties. Strong support for Allawi’s secular coalition of Sunnis and Shiites was viewed by some Western analysts as a sign of diminishing sectarian strife. “Politics has broken out in Iraq,” said Vice President Joe Biden, who hailed the election as a triumph.

The new government will oversee the scheduled withdrawal of American troops. President Obama has committed to reducing the number of U.S. troops from the current 96,000 to 50,000 by the end of August and withdrawing most remaining troops in 2011. The composition—and stability—of the next government may not be known for months. “The real test of a democracy is not so much the behavior of the winners,” said U.S. Ambassador to Iraq Christopher Hill. “It will be the behavior of the losers.”

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What the editorials said

The U.S. mission in Iraq is now complete, said The Boston Globe. With this election, Iraqis have taken their own fate into their hands, and we should proceed with troop withdrawals, even if some violence remains. “Yes, we broke all the china, but we have owned the china shop long enough now. It’s time to give it back to the original Iraqi owners to run.”

Much danger lies ahead, said the Financial Times. Let’s not forget that it was right after the last national election that Sunni insurgents bombed a Shiite shrine, triggering months of bloody reprisals. Before the U.S. leaves, we owe Iraqis continued assistance in building “working institutions, including a genuinely national government.” It’s possible the next government will contain “representative numbers of Sunnis and Shias in one Cabinet for the first time,” said Economist.com. If Sunnis gain a genuine political stake, sectarian violence may ease, creating the foundation for a functioning, pluralistic nation.

What the columnists said

If that nation does arise out of the ashes, said David Frum in CNN.com, George W. Bush will deserve full credit. In 2003, Bush pledged to build a democratic Iraq that would be an “inspiring example of freedom for other nations in the region.” After a long, painful struggle, his vision is being realized. That is “a remarkable achievement.”

Some achievement, said Tom Engelhardt in the Los Angeles Times. At a cost of 4,200 American lives, 30,000 wounded, and perhaps 100,000 or more Iraqi dead, we’ve paid dearly for a future we still can’t see. Despite billions in U.S. reconstruction aid to Iraq, not even the flow of electricity and water can be predicted there. The potential for a horrific civil war remains very real, said Peter Beinart in TheDailyBeast.com. “There’s been no agreement on how to distribute oil revenue,” or on how to share power between the federal government and Iraq’s regions. Don’t be surprised if Obama decides to keep 50,000 troops there long past the deadline to leave.

Still, there is good reason for cautious optimism, said Michael Crowley in The New Republic Online. Iraq’s current leader, al-Maliki, isn’t trusted by Sunnis, but he has transformed Iraq from an “apocalyptic hellhole to a merely treacherous and struggling nation.” If Allawi becomes prime minister, that’s even better news, because he’s more secular, with a history of good relationships with Sunnis. Better yet, he’s very wary of Iran. So even though no one will admit it, you can bet the Obama White House is rooting for Allawi.