Hillary: Why she’s no longer inevitable

“What happened to Hillary Clinton?” asked E.J. Dionne in The Washington Post. Not long ago, she seemed to be the “inevitable” Democratic nominee. She came into the presidential campaign with vastly superior name recognition, a base of loyal support, and the campaigner in chief, her husband, Bill. When she showed new poise and skill in the early debates, “party leaders lined up behind her, fearful of missing her fast-moving train.” Then a series of critical strategic mistakes left her stalled on the tracks, as Barack Obama raced past. It was a classic case of overconfidence, said Karen Tumulty in Time. Clinton’s “haughty” staff was so sure she’d have the nomination wrapped up by Super Tuesday that she had no field organization in place for the primaries and caucuses that followed. While she ran as a “pseudo-incumbent,” with no theme or message other than “We’re back,” Obama ran as the candidate of “change,” and organized doggedly in every state, large and small.

Those are just tactical matters, said Maureen Dowd in The New York Times. Hillary’s real problem is Hillary. She took an early lead by posing as a seasoned, practical senator who had jettisoned the “scalding partisanship” of her first lady days. But as her candidacy foundered, all the old patterns reappeared. Bill went out of control, and his attempt to diminish Obama hurt her campaign. She fired her campaign manager and replaced her with another longtime loyalist. She went negative on Obama. Voters don’t want another divisive, partisan president, said syndicated columnist Ann McFeatters. They want change, but Hillary’s not offering it. After all these years in Washington, she’s “as establishment as they come.” At the same time, Hillary has assumed so many identities—feminist, victim, insider, ex–flower child—that “millions of Americans aren’t sure who she is. Many find her saga exhausting.”

Still, millions of women identify strongly with her, said Elizabeth Wurtzel in The Wall Street Journal. When we see Hillary, we can’t help but see some version of ourselves: Diligent, organized, hardworking, yet pushed into the background by her cooler, more charismatic husband. Now, just when it’s her turn to shine, she’s being shunted aside by Obama, another charismatic man. “Women have seen this story. Women, finally, will say no to that.”

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With the help of the women’s vote, Clinton still might pull this off, said Michael Barone in U.S. News & World Report. Polls still show her with double-digit leads in Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, where the demographics—large white, working-class populations—play to her strength. To stop Obama’s momentum, said Ben Smith in Politico.com, Clinton has to go negative, and raise doubts about his experience, backbone, and ability to lead the country against foreign enemies. She can’t outspeak him or match his inspirational effect on Democratic voters; she can only pound home the message that Obama is a sweet-talking illusion.

There’s one other option, said Dick Polman in The Philadelphia Inquirer. Hillary can use the Clintons’ remaining political muscle to conduct an all-out war for the 796 superdelegates, who are free to vote for either candidate. She also could fight behind the scenes to seat the delegates from Florida and Michigan, states she won after both candidates agreed not to campaign there. That kind of ruthlessness, though, could produce “a strife-torn national convention, with thousands of young Obama fans screaming betrayal in the streets.” It would be an ugly win. But Hillary “undoubtedly subscribes to her husband’s credo about the need to fight ‘until the last dog dies.’” Giving up and accepting defeat “is not in the Clinton DNA.”